Working Paper No. 22 of 2017 on an Assessment of Tanzania's Agricultural Production, Climate Change, Agricultural Trade and Food Security

Abstract

Agriculture is the mainstay of Tanzania’s economy. The sector contributes significantly to national GDP and export earnings, supplies raw materials for agroindustry’s, supports rural livelihoods and feeds the urban population. Agriculture is important in managing inflation because it constitutes over half of the inflation basket as reflected in consumer price indices. However, the sector is dominated by smallholder farmers characterized by small family farms of around one hectare with limited industrial inputs and access to modern farm technologies. The agriculture sector is accorded the highest priority in the national development policies as an engine of growth and poverty reduction. The main policy goal is to achieve food security and eradicate poverty and hunger through agriculture development and transformation. However, the sector’s growth rate has stagnated at around 4 per cent in the last decade. The sector need to grow much faster (6%) than it has been over the past decade. Productivity in crop agriculture is still low at around 1-2 tonnes per hectare for cereals and grain legumes, which are central to the national food security. The sector is predominantly rain-fed and therefore prone to the vagaries of weather, which is expected to intensify with climate change. Tanzania has a huge potential of advancing its agriculture sector. Less than a quarter of its arable land (44 million) is currently cultivated. Smallholder farmers manage around 14 million hectare and large-scale commercial farming accounts for 1.5 million hectares. The country is using less than 2 per cent of its irrigation potential. The use of productivity-enhancing inputs, particularly both organic and inorganic fertilizer, is overly limited. Productivity can also be improved through better agronomic and soil-water management. Tanzania has a huge potential in livestock production, ranking second in Africa after Ethiopia in terms of number of livestock heads (20 million cattle and 17 million goats and sheep). However, the contribution of the livestock sector to national GDP is still around 18 per cent, and to agriculture 15 per cent. The livestock sector is dominated by indigenous cattle (80%) kept mainly under agropastoral system for dual purpose of supplying meat and milk. Only around 6 per cent of cattle are under commercial and smallholder dairy production systems. Productivity in the livestock sector, especially in the traditional system, is low...