Working Paper No. 28 of 2017 on Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Production, Trade and Food Security in the East Africa Community: The Trade Model

Abstract

The linkage between climate change, trade and food security is important in achieving development at both national and regional level in cases where neighbouring countries have a strong integration framework as is the case with the East Africa Community (EAC). Sustained production of commodities that ensure food security requires predictable weather patterns. However, the EAC economies’ heavy reliance on climate-sensitive natural resources and rainfed agriculture makes these economies very vulnerable to climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 reports that it is difficult to accurately predict consequences of climate change and the risks associated with it, even though impacts such as floods, drought and decline in crop yields are vividly observed. This study intends to bridge this gap by assessing the effect of climate change on trade and food security...