Policy Brief No. 08 of 2020-2021 on Exploiting Job Creation Potential for Youth in the Horticulture Industry in Kenya

Abstract

The agriculture sector contributed 21.2%, the equivalent of US$ 10.3 billion (2009 constant prices) of the country’s GDP in 2019. Of this, the crops subsector contributed the lion share of 27.8% or US$ 7.58 billion. In the crops sub-sector, export horticulture has contributed more than a third of the crops subsector’s total marketed produce since 2014. In 2019, horticultural activities recorded growth in exported fruits (8.3%) and cut flowers (7.8%) and a decline of 15.2% in volume of vegetables due to unfavourable weather conditions. In terms of wage employment, the horticulture subsector experienced a decline in the share of wage employment in 2018 in comparison to 2001. The slow or declining growth in wage employment in horticulture was attributed to structural changes within the sector. The horticulture sub-sector is characterized by use of more mechanized systems and/or automation in its production process, which may lower demand for wage employment at the firm level in the short run. It is also established that automation amidst innovation usually spurs sector wide development and growth in wage and non-wage employment. In horticulture, small-scale producers (mainly self-employed and contributing family workers) have increased over time. It is estimated that small-scale producers accounted for less than 50% of production in 2001 and over 70% of the total production in 2018. This may explain the increased output and exports in horticulture and apparent slack in wage employment.