| dc.description.abstract | This paper examines the impact of the Russia–Ukraine
war on grain and fertilizer supply to Kenya as the sixth
largest economy in Africa using the Regression Discontinuity
estimator on monthly data spanning from January
2017 to August 2022. The share of the quantity and value
of cereals and fertilizer imports by Kenya from Russia
and Ukraine in the total quantity and value of cereals
and fertilizer imports by Kenya from world are utilized.
The share of freight and insurance costs on grain and
fertilizer imports by Kenya from Russia and Ukraine in
total freight and insurance costs on grain and fertilizer
from world have also been used. After controlling for
sensitivity and incorporating depreciation of the
exchange rate and a dummy on drought as covariates,
the results indicate the war has had insignificant impact
on imports of grain and fertilizer by Kenya though the
impact is negative for grain but positive for fertilizer.
The findings have policy implications touching on need
for African countries to diversify import sources for grain
and fertilizer, enhance productive capacities through
investment on irrigation, strengthen diplomatic ties with
existing import sources for grain and fertilizer, and
invest in climate action to tackle drought incidences. | en |
