Quarterly Market Analysis Report October-December 2023

Abstract

Global growth, projected at 3.1 per cent for 2023, is expected to maintain this level in 2024 before experiencing a slight increase to 3.2 per cent in 2025. Compared to the World Economic Outlook (WEO) of October 2023, the forecast for January 2024 is approximately 0.2 percentage points higher, reflecting improvements in China, the United States, and significant growth in emerging and developing economies. However, global growth in 2024 and 2025 is anticipated to be lower than the historical annual average of 3.8 per cent from 2000 to 2019, due to tight monetary policies, the withdrawal of fiscal support, and low productivity growth. Advanced economies are expected to experience a slight dip in growth in 2024 before rebounding in 2025, while emerging and developing economies are projected to maintain steady growth through 2024 and 2025, with regional variations reflecting the growth effects observed in 2023. The domestic economy grew by 5.6 per cent in the first three quarters of 2023. This growth comprises of 5.5 per cent growth realized in the first quarter, 5.4 per cent in quarter 2 and 5.9 per cent in quarter 3. The 5.9 per cent growth in quarter 3 was 1.6 percentage points above the 4.3 per cent growth realized in a similar quarter in 2022. Growth in the third quarter of 2023 was propelled by a combination of factors.