QUARTERLY MARKET ANALYSIS REPORT 
   
  
 
 
 
 
April – June 2019 
 
 
 
 
INSIDE 
   
1. Performance in the Real Sector .................................................................................................... 2 
2. International Markets ....................................................................................................................... 7 
3. Money Market .................................................................................................................................. 11 
4. Fiscal Performance ........................................................................................................................ 13 
5. Capital Markets ............................................................................................................................... 16 
6. Risk-related Factors ...................................................................................................................... 19 
 
 
 
 
  
1. Performance in the Real Sector   
 
Figure 1: GDP growth, inflation and stock market performance   
 7.00  4,200
 6.00  3,600
 5.00  3,000
 4.00  2,400
 3.00  1,800
 2.00  1,200
 1.00  600
 -  -
Quarterly GDP Growth (%) Inflation (%) NSE20 Index
 
Data source: Central Bank of Kenya; Kenya National Bureau of Statistics 
 
Figure 2: Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index  
 210.00 120.97
 205.00 120.64
 200.00 120.31
 195.00 119.98
 190.00 119.65
 185.00 119.32
 180.00 118.99
 175.00 118.66
 170.00 118.33
 165.00 118
Producer Price Index Consumer Price Index
 
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics 
2 
 
Consumer Price Index Inflation and Quarterly GDP (%)
Jan-18
Jan-18
Feb-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
Apr-18
May-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Sep-18
Oct-18 Oct-18
Nov-18 Nov-18
Dec-18 Dec-18
Jan-19 Jan-19
Feb-19 Feb-19
Mar-19 Mar-19
Apr-19 Apr-19
May-19 May-19
Jun-19 Jun-19
Producer Price Index NSE20 Index
 
Figure 3: Commodity inflation and crude oil prices   
 20.00  90.00
 18.00  80.00
 16.00
 70.00
 14.00
 60.00
 12.00
 10.00  50.00
 8.00  40.00
 6.00
 30.00
 4.00
 20.00
 2.00
 -  10.00
 (2.00)  -
Overall Inflation (%) Food Inflation (%)
Fuel Inflation (%) Non-food Non-Fuel Inflation (%)
ADNOC Crude Oil Prices (US$/Barrel)
 
Data source: Central Bank of Kenya; https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/block/50  
 
Figure 4: Domestic wholesale agriculture commodity prices  
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
Kales Index Cereals Index Legumes Index
Tubers Index Fruits & Vegetables Index
 
Data source: Index calculated by KIPPRA using data from Ministry of Agriculture 
 
 
3 
 
Monthly Wholesale Food Price Index Inflation (%)
Jan-18
Jan-18
Feb-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
Apr-18
May-18
May-18 Jun-18
Jun-18 Jul-18
Jul-18 Aug-18
Aug-18 Sep-18
Oct-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Dec-18
Feb-19
Jan-19
Mar-19
Feb-19 Apr-19
Mar-19 May-19
Apr-19 Jun-19
May-19
Jun-19
Crude Oil Price (US$ / Barrel)
Figure 5: Contribution of selected CPI Baskets to overall Inflation (%)  
18.00
16.00
14.00
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
-2.00
Food & Non-Al-coholic Bever-ages Clothing & Foot-wear
Housing, Water, Elec-tricity, Gas and other Fuels Health
 
Data Source: Central Bank of Kenya    
 
 
Figure 6: Average domestic pump prices and global crude oil prices  
 125.00  125.00
 120.00  120.00
 115.00  115.00
 110.00  110.00
 105.00  105.00
 100.00  100.00
 95.00  95.00
 90.00  90.00
 85.00  85.00
 80.00  80.00
 75.00  75.00
 70.00  70.00
 65.00  65.00
 60.00  60.00
 55.00  55.00
 50.00  50.00
Motor Gasoline Premium Light Diesel Oil (Gasoil)
Illuminating Kerosene ADNOC Crude Oil Prices
 
Data Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics; Energy Regulatory Commission;  
https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/block/50 
 
4 
 
Average Local Retail Price (KSh./Ltr) Cotribution to Overall Inflation (%)
Jan-18 Jan-18
Feb-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18 May-18
Jul-18 Jun-18
Aug-18 Jul-18
Sep-18
Aug-18
Oct-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Jan-19 Nov-18
Feb-19 Dec-18
Mar-19 Jan-19
Apr-19
Feb-19
May-19
Mar-19
Jun-19
Apr-19
May-19
ADNOC Crude Oil Prices (US$ / Barrel) Jun-19
Figure 7: Electricity generation and consumption (KPLC sales in million KWh)  
 1,000.00
 950.00
 900.00
 850.00
 800.00
 750.00
 700.00
 650.00
 600.00
Electricity Generation Electricity Consumption
 
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics 
 
 
Figure 8: Cement production and consumption (‘000 MT), index of value of building plans   
560.00  300.0
540.00  275.0
520.00  250.0
500.00  225.0
480.00  200.0
460.00  175.0
440.00  150.0
420.00  125.0
400.00  100.0
Cement Production (000' MT) Cement Consumption ('000 MT) Index of Value of Building Plans
 
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics 
 
 
5 
 
Cement Production & Consumption ('000 MT)
Electricity Generation and Consumption 
(Million kWh)
Jan-18
Feb-18 Jan-18
Mar-18
Feb-18
Apr-18
Mar-18
May-18
Apr-18
Jun-18
May-18
Jul-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Aug-18
Oct-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Dec-18
Feb-19
Jan-19
Mar-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Index of Value of Building Plans
Figure 9: Kenya composite housing sales and rental Index (year 2000 = 100)    
460
450
440
430
420
410
400
390
380
370
360
Composite Property Sales Index Composite Property Rental Index
 
Data Source: Hass Property Index; http://hassconsult.co.ke/real-estate/hass-index/  
 
 
Figure 10: Intake of processed milk in the formal sector (million litres)     
 70.00
 65.00
 60.00
 55.00
 50.00
 45.00
 40.00
 
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics 
 
  
6 
 
Milk Intake (Million Litres) Composite Index (Year 2000 = 100)
Dec-17
Jan-18
Jan-18
Feb-18 Feb-18
Mar-18 Mar-18
Apr-18
Apr-18
May-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Jul-18 Aug-18
Sep-18
Aug-18
Oct-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Nov-18 Jan-19
Feb-19
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jan-19
Apr-19
Feb-19
May-19
Mar-19 Jun-19
2. International Markets  
 
Figure 11: Trends in coffee and tea production (metric tonnes), exports (Ksh millions) 
and auction prices (Ksh/Kg)  
 
Figure 11(a): Coffee production and exports  
 7,000.00  3,500.00
 6,000.00  3,000.00
 5,000.00  2,500.00
 4,000.00  2,000.00
 3,000.00  1,500.00
 2,000.00  1,000.00
 1,000.00  500.00
 -  -
Kenya Coffee Production Kenya Coffee Exports
 
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics 
 
Figure 11(b): Kenya coffee auction prices (KSh/Kg)   
 700.00
 600.00
 500.00
 400.00
 300.00
 200.00
 100.00
 -
 
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics; Nairobi Coffee Exchange 
7 
 
Coffee Auction Price (KSh/Kg) Coffee Production (MT)
Jan-18
Jan-18
Feb-18 Feb-18
Mar-18 Mar-18
Apr-18 Apr-18
May-18 May-18
Jun-18 Jun-18
Jul-18 Jul-18
Aug-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Jan-19
Feb-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Mar-19 Apr-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Coffee Exports (KSh. Million)
 
Figure 11(c): Tea production and exports  
 55,000.00  15,500.00
 50,000.00  14,250.00
 45,000.00  13,000.00
 40,000.00  11,750.00
 35,000.00  10,500.00
 30,000.00  9,250.00
 25,000.00  8,000.00
Kenya Tea Production Kenya Tea Exports
 
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics 
 
 
Figure 11(d): Kenya tea auction prices (KSh/Kg)   
 320.00
 300.00
 280.00
 260.00
 240.00
 220.00
 200.00
 180.00
 
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics; Mombasa Tea Auction 
 
8 
 
Tea Auction Price (KSh/Kg) Tea Production (MT)
Jan-18
Jan-18
Feb-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Mar-18
Apr-18 Apr-18
May-18 May-18
Jun-18 Jun-18
Jul-18 Jul-18
Aug-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Jan-19 Feb-19
Feb-19 Mar-19
Mar-19 Apr-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19 Tea Exports (KSh. Million)
Figure 12: The exchange rate of Kenya shilling to global currencies  
 150.0000 140.00
 140.0000 130.00
 130.0000
120.00
 120.0000
110.00
 110.0000
100.00
 100.0000
 90.0000 90.00
 80.0000 80.00
US Dollar Index KES/USD KES/STG-POUND KES/EURO
 
Data source: Central Bank of Kenya; Kenya National Bureau of Statistics; 
https://www.investing.com/quotes/us-dollar-index-historical-data 
 
 
Figure 13: The exchange rate of Kenya shilling to regional currencies  
0.14 9
0.12 8.5
0.1 8
0.08 7.5
0.06 7
0.04 6.5
0.02 6
KES/UGX KES/TZS KES/RWF KES/BIF KES/SA-RAND
 
Data source: Central Bank of Kenya  
 
9 
 
Units of KES to 1 USH, TSH, RWF, BIF Units of KES to 1 USD, STG-Pound, Euro
02-Jan-18
02-Feb-18 02-Jan-18
02-Mar-18 02-Feb-18
02-Apr-18 02-Mar-18
02-May-18 02-Apr-18
02-May-18
02-Jun-18
02-Jun-18
02-Jul-18
02-Jul-18
02-Aug-18
02-Aug-18
02-Sep-18
02-Sep-18
02-Oct-18
02-Oct-18
02-Nov-18 02-Nov-18
02-Dec-18 02-Dec-18
02-Jan-19 02-Jan-19
02-Feb-19 02-Feb-19
02-Mar-19
02-Mar-19
02-Apr-19
02-Apr-19
02-May-19
02-May-19
02-Jun-19
02-Jun-19
02-Jul-19
02-Jul-19
Units of KES to 1 SA-Rand US Dollar  Index
Figure 14: Foreign exchange reserves, remittances and months of import cover  
 
Figure 14 (a): Official foreign exchange reserves and diaspora remittances  
10,000.0 270.0
9,700.0 262.0
9,400.0 254.0
9,100.0 246.0
8,800.0 238.0
8,500.0 230.0
8,200.0 222.0
7,900.0 214.0
7,600.0 206.0
7,300.0 198.0
7,000.0 190.0
Diaspora Remittances Official Foreign Reserves
 
Data Source: Central Bank of Kenya  
 
 
Figure 14 (b): Months of import cover 
 6.5
 6.3
 6.1
 5.9
 5.7
 5.5
 5.3
 5.1
 4.9
 
Data Source: Central Bank of Kenya  
  
10 
 
Months of Import Cover Official Foreign Reserves (USD Million)
Jan-18
Jan-18
Feb-18 Feb-18
Mar-18 Mar-18
Apr-18 Apr-18
May-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Sep-18 Oct-18
Oct-18 Nov-18
Dec-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Dec-18
Feb-19
Jan-19
Mar-19
Feb-19
Apr-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
Diaspora Remittances (USD Million)
3. Money Market  
 
Figure 15: Interbank rate and volume, Repo and interest rates  
Centtrraal lB BanaknRka Rtea(t%e) (%) RepoR eapnod a nRde Rveevresres eR Reeppo
14.000
10.2
12.000
10.0
9.8 10.000
9.6 8.000
9.4 6.000
9.2 4.000
9.0
2.000
8.8
0.000
8.6
8.4
Repo Reverse Repo
InteInrtberabnankk  rRattee a nadn Vdol uvmoelume
12.00 45000 CCommerrcciiaall B Banakn kR aRtaetse (%s )(%)
40000 16.00
10.00
35000 14.00
8.00 30000 12.00
25000 10.00
6.00
20000 8.00
4.00 15000 6.00
4.00
10000
2.00 2.00
5000
0.00
0.00 0
Volume (KSh. Million) Weighted Average Rate (%) Deposit Rate Savings Rate Lending Rate
 
Data source: Central Bank of Kenya 
 
Figure 16: Treasury bill weighted average rate (%) 
12.0
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
91-Day 182-Day 364-Day
 
Data source: Central Bank of Kenya 
11 
 
Interbank Weighted Average Rate (%)
2-Jan-18
01-Jan-18 23-Jan-18 Jan-18
13-Feb-18 Feb-18
22-Jan-18 6-Mar-18
27-Mar-18 Mar-18
12-Feb-18 17-Apr-18 Apr-18
8-May-18
05-Mar-18 29-May-18 May-18
19-Jun-18
26-Mar-18 Jun-1810-Jul-18
31-Jul-18 Jul-18
16-Apr-18 21-Aug-18
11-Sep-18 Aug-18
07-May-18 2-Oct-18 Sep-18
23-Oct-18
28-May-18 13-Nov-18 Oct-18
4-Dec-18
Nov-18
18-Jun-18 25-Dec-18
15-Jan-19 Dec-18
5-Feb-19
09-Jul-18
26-Feb-19 Jan-19
19-Mar-19
30-Jul-18 Feb-19
9-Apr-19
30-Apr-19 Mar-19
20-Aug-18 21-May-19
Apr-19
11-Jun-19
10-Sep-18 2-Jul-19 May-19
01-Oct-18 Jun-19
Volume (KSh. Million)
22-Oct-18
12-Nov-18
1/2/2018
03-Dec-18 Jan-18 1/11/2018
2/8/2018
24-Dec-18 Feb-18 2/23/2018
Mar-18 3/22/2018
14-Jan-19 4/9/2018
Apr-18
5/8/2018
04-Feb-19 May-18 5/24/2018
6/22/2018
25-Feb-19 Jun-18
7/9/2018
Jul-18 7/30/2018
18-Mar-19
Aug-18 8/9/2018
08-Apr-19 8/28/2018Sep-18 9/12/2018
29-Apr-19 Oct-18 1/10/2018
18/10/2018
Nov-18
20-May-19 6/11/2018
Dec-18 28/11/2018
10-Jun-19 14/12/2018
Jan-19
4/1/2019
01-Jul-19 Feb-19 16/01/2019
Mar-19 5/2/2019
12/3/2019
Apr-19 1/4/2019
May-19 23/04/2019
13/05/2019
 
Figure 17: Mobile money transactions  
 180.00  405.00
 160.00  360.00
 140.00  315.00
 120.00  270.00
 100.00  225.00
 80.00  180.00
 60.00  135.00
 40.00  90.00
 20.00  45.00
 -  -
Mobile Money Subscriptions (Millions) Number of Transactions (Millions)
Value of Transactions (KSh Billion)
 
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics  
 
Figure 18: Kenyan banking sector performance  
 52.00  15.00
 50.00  12.50
 48.00  10.00
 46.00  7.50
 44.00  5.00
 42.00  2.50
 40.00  -
Return on Asset (%) Liquidity Ratio (%) Ratio of Gross NPL/Gross loans (%)
 
Data Source: Calculated using data from Central Bank of Kenya  
  
12 
 
Liquidity Ratio (%) Subscriptions and Transactions (Number)
Jan-18 0.30 Jan-18
Feb-18 0.56 Feb-18
Mar-18 0.00 Mar-18
Apr-18 1.20 Apr-18
May-18 1.48 May-18
Jun-18
Jun-18 0.00 
Jul-18
Jul-18 2.05 
Aug-18
Aug-18 2.28 
Sep-18
Sep-18 0.00 
Oct-18
Oct-18 2.87 
Nov-18
Nov-18 3.25 
Dec-18
Dec-18 0.00 
Jan-19
Jan-19 0.00 
Feb-19
Feb-19 0.00 
Mar-19
Mar-19 0.00 Apr-19
Apr-19 0.00 May-19
Return on Assets and Ratio of Gross NPL to Gross 
Loans (%) Value of Transactions (KSh. Billion)
4. Fiscal Performance  
 
Figure 19: Fiscal deficit and county transfers (KSh. Billion)  
 
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
-500
-600
-700
Fiscal Deficit 2016/17 County Transfer 2016/17 Fiscal Deficit 2017/18
County Transfer 2017/18 Fiscal Deficit 2018/19 County Transfer 2018/19
 
Data Source: Central Bank of Kenya 
 
Figure 20: Total debt (KSh. Billion) and proportionate shares of domestic and foreign debt  
6,000.00
5,000.00
4,000.00
3,000.00
2,000.00
1,000.00
0.00
Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19
Domestic debt Public & Publicly Guaranteed External debt Total Debt
 
Data Source: Calculated using data from Central Bank of Kenya 
13 
 
KSh. Billion Fiscal Deficit and County Transfers (KSh. Billion)
July
48.56% 51.44%
August
September
49.19% 50.81% October
November
December
49.37% 50.63%
January
February
March
48.34% 51.66%
April
May
49.79% 50.21% June
 
Figure 21: Composition of government domestic debt by instrument (%)   
100%
90%
80%
70%
64.64 63.68
60.45 60.53 61.34 57.86
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
32.26 33.71
36.93 37.26 36.30 35.78
10%
0%
Jan-March 2018 April-June 2018 July-Sept 2018 Oct-Dec 2018 Jan-March 2019 April-June 2019
Treasury Bills (excluding Repos) Treasury Bonds CBK Overdraft to Govt Other domestic debt
 
Data Source: Calculated using data from Central Bank of Kenya  
 
 
Figure 22: Composition of government domestic debt by holder (%)  
100%
4.50 4.48 4.48 4.54 4.49 4.47
90%
80% 27.37 27.19 26.90 27.43 27.56 27.94
70%
6.81 6.95 7.18 7.46 7.26 7.06
60% 6.35 6.37 6.15 6.05 6.10 6.19
50%
40%
30%
55.02 54.99 52.27 54.49 54.60 54.33
20%
10%
0%
Jan-March 2018 April-June 2018 July-Sept 2018 Oct-Dec 2018 Jan-March 2019 April-June 2019
Banking Institutions Insurance Companies Parastatals Pension Funds Other investors
 
Data Source: Calculated using data from Central bank of Kenya  
 
14 
 
Figure 23: Composition of external debt: proportionate shares of bilateral, multilateral, 
commercial bank and export credit  
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
Bilateral Multilateral Commercial Banks Export Credit
 
Data Source: Calculated using data from Central bank of Kenya  
 
 
 
  
15 
 
% of external debt
Jan-18 33.87 35.90 29.52
Feb-18 31.38 32.84 35.12
Mar-18 31.88 33.31 34.15
Apr-18 32.19 32.29 34.87
May-18 32.16 32.06 35.13
Jun-18 32.07 31.88 35.40
Jul-18 31.20 32.95 35.21
Aug-18 31.14 32.94 35.28
Sep-18 31.19 33.69 34.48
Oct-18 31.54 33.71 34.12
Nov-18 31.39 33.32 34.66
Dec-18 32.83 32.11 34.44
Jan-19 34.44 31.28 33.67
Feb-19 34.39 31.28 33.72
Mar-19 33.68 31.11 34.60
5. Capital Markets  
 
Figure 24: Bond volumes traded (Ksh millions) and FTSE NSE Kenya government bond 
price Index  
 98.0  78,000.0
 97.0  69,000.0
 96.0  60,000.0
 95.0  51,000.0
 94.0  42,000.0
 93.0  33,000.0
 92.0  24,000.0
 91.0  15,000.0
FTSE NSE Government Bond Price Index Bond Volumnes Traded (KSh. Million)
 
Data Source: Nairobi Securities Exchange; Central Bank of Kenya 
 
 
Figure 25: The 5 and 10-year Kenya Eurobond yields (%)  
9.000
8.000
7.000
6.000
5.000
4.000
3.000
5-year Eurobond Yield (%) 10-year Eurobond Yield - 2024 (%)
 
Data Source: Central Bank of Kenya 
 
16 
 
FTSE NSE Kenya Government Bond Price Index
01-Jan-18
22-Jan-18
12-Feb-18 Jan-18
05-Mar-18 Feb-18
26-Mar-18 Mar-18
16-Apr-18
Apr-18
07-May-18
May-18
28-May-18
Jun-18
18-Jun-18
09-Jul-18 Jul-18
30-Jul-18 Aug-18
20-Aug-18 Sep-18
10-Sep-18
Oct-18
01-Oct-18
Nov-18
22-Oct-18
Dec-18
12-Nov-18
03-Dec-18 Jan-19
24-Dec-18 Feb-19
14-Jan-19 Mar-19
04-Feb-19
Apr-19
25-Feb-19
May-19
18-Mar-19
Jun-19
08-Apr-19
29-Apr-19
20-May-19
10-Jun-19
01-Jul-19 Bond Volumes Traded (KSh. Million)
Figure 26: Stock market performance  
4000.00
3750.00
3500.00
3250.00
3000.00
2750.00
2500.00
2250.00
2000.00
1750.00
1500.00
NSE20 Index Mkt Cap (KSh Bn)
 
Data Source: Nairobi Securities Exchange 
 
 
Figure 27: Stock value turnover ratio (%)  
 0.300
 0.250
 0.200
 0.150
 0.100
 0.050
 -
 
Data Source: Nairobi Securities Exchange; Calculated as equity turnover value (Ksh millions)/ 
Market capitalization (Ksh millions)   
 
17 
 
Stock Turnover Ratio (%)
01-Jan-18
02-Jan-18 18-Jan-18
04-Feb-18
02-Feb-18 21-Feb-18
10-Mar-18
02-Mar-18
27-Mar-18
02-Apr-18 13-Apr-18
30-Apr-18
02-May-18 17-May-18
03-Jun-18
02-Jun-18 20-Jun-18
07-Jul-18
02-Jul-18
24-Jul-18
02-Aug-18 10-Aug-18
27-Aug-18
02-Sep-18 13-Sep-18
30-Sep-18
02-Oct-18
17-Oct-18
02-Nov-18 03-Nov-18
20-Nov-18
02-Dec-18 07-Dec-18
24-Dec-18
02-Jan-19 10-Jan-19
27-Jan-19
02-Feb-19
13-Feb-19
02-Mar-19 02-Mar-19
19-Mar-19
02-Apr-19 05-Apr-19
22-Apr-19
02-May-19
09-May-19
02-Jun-19 26-May-19
12-Jun-19
02-Jul-19 29-Jun-19
Figure 28: Foreign trading in the stock market  
 25,000.00  90.00
 22,500.00  80.00
 20,000.00  70.00
 17,500.00  60.00
 15,000.00  50.00
 12,500.00  40.00
 10,000.00  30.00
 7,500.00  20.00
 5,000.00  10.00
 2,500.00  -
Foreign Purchases (FP) Foreign Sales (FS)
Equity Market Turnover (ET) Average Foreign Participation to Equity Turnover (%)
 
Data Source: Central Bank of Kenya; AIB Capital Ltd (http://www.aibcapital.com/research).  
  
18 
 
(KSh. Million) 
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Average Foreign Participation to Equity Turnover 
(%)
6. Risk-related Factors  
 
Table 1: Sovereign credit ratings for select African economies (As at June 2019) 
 
Country Credit Rating 
Grade Moody's Fitch S&P 
Angola B3 B (12/07/2019) B- (11/08/2017) 
Botswana A2  A- (15/02/2010) 
Cameroon   B (26/02/2007) B (07/06/2019) 
Egypt B2 B+ (21/03/2019) B (11/05/2019) 
Ethiopia  B (23/11/2018)  
Ghana Not rated B (18/03/2019) B (14/09/2019) 
Kenya B1 (January 2019) B+ (30/04/2019) B+ (19/11/2010) 
Morocco Ba1 BBB- (11/04/2019) BBB- (23/03/2010) 
Mauritius Baa1   
Mozambique Caa3 RD (10/05/2019) SD (18/01/2017) 
Namibia Ba1 BB+ (13/08/2018)  
Rwanda  B+ (02/11/2018) B (09/09/2016) 
South Africa Baa3 BB+ (06/12/2018) BB (24/11/2017) 
Uganda  B+ (28/06/2019) B (17/01/2014) 
    
Grade Moody's Fitch S&P 
Prime (lowest level of credit risk) Aaa AAA AAA 
Aa1 AA+ AA+ 
High grade  
Aa2 AA AA 
(very low credit risk) 
Aa3 AA- AA- 
A1 A+ A+ 
Upper medium grade  
A2 A A 
(Low credit risk) 
A3 A- A- 
Baa1 BBB+ BBB+ 
Lower medium grade  
Baa2 BBB BBB 
(Moderate credit risk) 
Baa3 BBB- BBB- 
Non-investment grade Ba1 BB+ BB+ 
Speculative  Ba2 BB BB 
(Substantial credit risk) Ba3 BB- BB- 
B1 B+ B+ 
Highly speculative  
B2 B B 
(High credit risk) 
B3 B- B- 
Caa1 CCC+ CCC+ 
Substantial risks  
Caa2 CCC CCC 
(Very high credit risk) 
Caa3 CCC- CCC- 
Ca CC CC 
Extremely speculative 
  C   
Data source: Standard & Poor’s, Fitch, Moody’s; https://countryeconomics.com  
 
 
  
19 
 
Figure 29: Kenya purchasing managers’ index  
60.0
58.0
56.0
54.0
52.0
50.0 50 = Neutral
48.0
46.0
44.0
42.0
40.0
 
Data Source: Stanbic Bank (https://www.stanbicbank.co.ke); IHS-Markit (https://ihsmarkit.com)   
Key: 50.0 = Neutral; Above 50.0 = Expansion; Below 50.0 = Contraction 
 
Figure 30: Mean annual and seasonal rainfall   
 1,200.0
 1,100.0
 1,000.0
 900.0
 800.0
 700.0
 600.0
 500.0
 400.0
 300.0
 200.0
 100.0
 -
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
March-May June-August October-December Annual
 
Data Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics; Kenya Meteorological Department     
 
20 
 
Rainfall in milimeters
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Contraction Expansion