The KENYA INSTITUTE for PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH and ANALYSIS No. 24/2023-2024 Thinking Policy Together Decarbonizing the Transport Sector in Africa: Urgent Action and Proposals for Climate Action Eliud Moyi and Martha Naikumi Key Highlights (iii) The limited availability of public transit options in African cities, leading to heightened reliance The rate of motorization in Africa continues to grow on private transportation with potentially high relative to other regions globally. Consequently, the rates pollution levels, underscores the critical need for the of transport emissions remain unabated due to factors development and effective implementation of Bus such as increasing vehicle ownership, poor fuel quality, Rapid Transit (BRT) systems. and limited transit options. These concerns limit the rate of decarbonization of the transport sector in the continent. (iv) To effectively decarbonize the transport sector in The key highlights include: Africa, it is imperative to embrace and implement comprehensive measures, including the promotion (i) The rapid rise in vehicle ownership in Africa, with of sustainable transport solutions, enhancement of a projected doubling by 2030, poses a substantial vehicle emission standards, rigorous enforcement threat to emissions especially in urban areas. of stringent fuel quality standards through capacity (ii) The prevalence of low-quality fuels in Africa, resulting building and collaboration, and a strategic expansion in higher emissions from vehicles, poses a significant of efficient, green, and inclusive public transit threat to air quality and public health, with evidence options, all supported by targeted investments, pointing to the urgent need for comprehensive international partnerships, and a commitment to regulations, enforcement mechanisms, and public long-term sustainability goals. awareness campaigns. . Introduction catalyst for transformative policy actions that will set Africa has a unique opportunity to recalibrate its the continent on a trajectory towards a sustainable transportation strategies and set the continent on a and decarbonized transport future. Achieving this trajectory towards a sustainable and decarbonized goal will require careful policy planning and external transport future. The global transport sector support, balancing pressing needs such as poverty accounts for a quarter of all greenhouse gas reduction and access to electricity with climate emissions and, in Africa, there has been a notable goals (EASAC, 2019; Tokam, 2022). This policy brief surge in transport-related emissions. Between 2010 implores African leaders to leverage COP28 as a and 2021, the region experienced a substantial 34 catalyst for transformative policy actions that will set per cent increase in carbon emissions, making it the continent on a trajectory towards a sustainable the second-highest growth rate globally, just behind and decarbonized transport future. Asia (SLOCAT, 2023). The main contributors to this rising trend include the prevalence of outdated Rising Vehicle Ownership and vehicles dependent on traditional fuels, a lack of Implications on Emissions robust public transit alternatives, and an escalating demand for increased mobility (SLOCAT, 2023). The increasing vehicle ownership and use in Africa is a major driver of emissions in the transport sector. Decarbonizing the transport sector is not only a Vehicle ownership in Africa has risen rapidly, with climate imperative but also an avenue for job creation, over 400 per cent increase from 2005-2015 and is energy security, and improved air quality (EASAC, expected to double again by 2030 as incomes and 2019). African leaders can leverage COP28 as a the middle class grow (SLOCAT, 2023). This trend KIPPRA Policy Brief No. 24/2023-2024 1 threatens to lock African cities into high-emission Ampofo and Sunnu, 2021). The guidelines also aim transport systems with congestion and urban sprawl to help African cities deliver a more reliable and unless managed prudently (IEA, 2019).1 The Safer speedy transport system to their growing urban and Cleaner Used Vehicles for Africa programme, populations. supported by the United Nations Road Safety Fund, aims to reduce emissions of air pollutants and Despite these efforts, gaps still exist in addressing greenhouse gases by up to 90 per cent by requiring the increasing vehicle ownership and use in Africa. all vehicles to be imported, both new and used, The lack of robust data on urban and rural transport and petrol and diesel, to comply with minimum in Africa makes quantifying trends and calculating standards/requirements for used vehicles (UNEP, emissions difficult, although efforts are being made 2022). However, the absence of a global and/or to fill in critical data and information gaps (SLOCAT, regional harmonized standard on the trade of used 2023). There are also challenges associated with cars presents a major global challenge to road safety weak enforcement of stringent vehicle emission and clean and affordable road transport, especially standards. Strengthening and enforcing emission with the rapid growth of used vehicles in developing regulations can help reduce the environmental countries (UNEP, 2022). African countries have taken impact of the growing number of vehicles. Access to various measures to curb imports of used vehicles, clean and efficient transportation technologies, such including banning imports of used vehicles in Egypt, as electric vehicles, is limited due to their higher South Africa, Sudan, and Seychelles, and imposing upfront costs. Incentives and support mechanisms age restrictions in Kenya, Rwanda, Angola, and are often necessary to make these technologies Morocco (UNEP, 2022). However, the concern about more accessible to a broader population. used cars is not necessarily in their categorization or age but whether such cars are still roadworthy. Fuel Quality and Energy Mix Impact The transport inspectorate of the Dutch Ministry of Reliance on fossil fuels in Africa, particularly low- Infrastructure and Water Management reported that quality fuels, contributes to higher levels of carbon out of 160 vehicles exported to Africa, more than 80% dioxide and other pollutants. Low-quality fuel leads did not have roadworthy certificates, and some of to higher emissions from vehicles, and this is a these vehicles did not even have catalytic converters pressing problem in many African countries. The attached (Ayetor, Mbonigaba, Ampofo and Sunnu, results are poor air quality in many African cities that 2021). have far less fuel consumption than major European Efforts have been made by African countries and metropolitan areas. Air pollution remains a major international organizations to address the increasing challenge in Africa, with about 600,000 deaths vehicle ownership and use in Africa. Efforts are every year across the continent associated with this 3 being made to address these challenges, such invisible killer. as the United Nations Environment Programme Evidence indicates that poor fuel quality, aging push for soot-free buses in Africa and the African vehicle fleet, and lack of mandatory roadworthy Development Bank’s support for sustainable emission tests were to blame for the deteriorating transport solutions (AfDB, 2021).2 The West African transport emissions in Africa (SLOCAT, 2023). The region has one of the fastest-growing vehicle fleets African Refiners and Distributors Association (ARDA) in the world, and the Economic Community of West held its annual conference in Cape Town, South African States Commission, with the support of the Africa, where it was reported that many African United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) nations, including Ghana, have Sulphur standards and other partners has adopted regulations to restrict that range as high as 300 times the levels in Europe the quality of cars being imported into the region and the United States. The report also highlighted (UNEP, 2022). All vehicles that are imported, both that many traders take advantage of fuel standards new and used, and petrol and diesel, are required in Africa that allow for high contents of Sulphur that to comply with a minimum of EURO 4/IV vehicle would not meet modern environmental regulations emissions standard as from 1 January 2021, and in Europe and other developed markets (SLOCAT, an age limit for used vehicles of 10 years was also 2023). agreed to, with a requirement of a five-year age limit for light-duty vehicles (Ayetor, Mbonigaba, Ampofo Governments in some African countries have and Sunnu, 2021). The African Association of Public started to either implement or strengthen fuel Transport (UAPT), UNEP, and the Climate and Clean quality standards and regulations to control the Air Coalition (CCAC) launched key guidelines in sulfur content and other harmful components in November 2021 that establish a strategic roadmap fuels. These standards aim to bring fuels in line with designed to help African cities embrace electric international norms, thereby reducing emissions. mobility (UNEP, 2022) . The guidelines aim to reduce Nigeria has developed regulations on fuel quality the environmental damage and human health risks standards, which are embedded in the country’s associated with vehicle fleets in African cities, which National Automotive Industry Development Plan are doubling every 10 years (Ayetor, Mbonigaba, (NAIDP) (National Automotive Industry Development 2 KIPPRA Policy Brief No. 24/2023-2024 Plan, 2023).4 Public awareness campaigns have been regionally and internationally. As the world embarks launched in South Africa, Kenya, Nigeria, Morocco, on discussions about addressing climate change and Ghana to educate citizens about the importance during COP28, keen attention needs to be paid to of using cleaner fuels and reducing emissions (Clean the African continent to address the rising levels of Air Initiative for African Cities, 2022).5 However, most transport emissions. African countries lack stringent regulations and effective enforcement mechanisms to control vehicle To address these challenges and decarbonize the emissions. The absence of emission standards for transport sector in Africa, these recommendations vehicles, and lax enforcement of existing standards, could be considered: contribute to higher carbon emissions from the (i) Promote sustainable transport solutions: transportation sector. Transportation ministries, urban planning Limited Public Transit Options and agencies, and local governments need to undertake comprehensive assessments to Pollution identify transportation needs and patterns, Limited public transit options in African cities contribute coupled with the formulation of policies that to increased reliance on private transportation, such prioritize public transportation, cycling, and as diesel-powered mini-buses and motorcycles, walking, alongside offering financial incentives which can be significant polluters. This is a pressing for adopting environmentally friendly vehicles. issue in Africa, where most cities have limited public (ii) Improve vehicle emissions standards: transport systems relying on diesel-powered mini- Government regulatory authorities responsible buses and motorcycles (having two-stroke engines), for transportation and environmental regulations making them even more polluting. African cities have could take the lead in establishing and regularly been increasingly turning to Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) updating stringent tailpipe emissions standards systems to improve mobility. Bus Rapid Transit runs for vehicles, focusing on reducing carbon dioxide on dedicated lanes, offering fast and consistent (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), particulate matter journey times, and operated by large vehicles that (PM), and other harmful pollutants. can carry large numbers of people quickly and efficiently. The World Bank has been supporting (iii) Address poor fuel quality: Government regulatory the growth of Bus Rapid Transit systems in Africa, agencies should develop and enforce stringent as they are an integral part of the transition towards fuel quality standards in line with international efficient, green, and inclusive mobility. benchmarks, focusing on key parameters such as sulfur content, octane levels, and additives, In South Africa, Johannesburg’s Rea Vaya and and: Cape Town’s MyCiTi are examples of BRT systems designed to enhance public transportation, reduce (a) Invest in capacity building for regulatory agencies carbon emissions, and improve traffic flow (Gauthier to effectively monitor and enforce fuel quality and Weinstock, 2010). Other African cities with standards; establish training programmes functioning BRT systems include Marrakech, Cairo, for refinery workers, inspectors, and other Accra, and Lagos. Kenya has been exploring the stakeholders to improve their understanding of development of a BRT system to address traffic and adherence to quality standards; facilitate congestion and reduce carbon emissions. knowledge exchange programmes with countries that have successfully addressed However, African countries face several challenges fuel quality issues; and promote research in developing and implementing effective public and development in the local fuel industry to transportation systems. These include inadequate encourage innovation and the adoption of import regulations, lack of export standards, and cleaner technologies. unreliable electricity infrastructure. In some African countries such as Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi, (b) Collaborate with private sector and international and Rwanda, regulations have been implemented to organizations in public-private partnerships reduce sulfur content in fuels (Ayetor, Mbonigaba, (PPPs) to improve fuel infrastructure by providing Ampofo and Sunnu, 2021). However, challenges investment incentives such as tax breaks, remain in monitoring and enforcing these regulations, subsidies, or low-interest loans; focusing on and in improving the overall quality of fuels. upgrading refineries, storage facilities, and transportation networks; and ensuring that these Call to Action and Recommendations for investments align with long-term sustainability COP28 goals. Although efforts have been made by nations and (c) Support the production and consumption of regional blocks to reverse the situation without alternative fuels, such as biofuels, compressed compromising economic development, there is need natural gas (CNG), and liquefied petroleum for concerted efforts from diverse players nationally, gas (LPG); provide subsidies or tax breaks KIPPRA Policy Brief No. 24/2023-2024 3 for the development and adoption of cleaner Environment (1978-), 36(3): 317-327. http:// fuel technologies; and promote research and www.jstor.org/stable/23289721. development in renewable energy sources to diversify the energy mix and reduce dependence SLOCAT (2023), Global status report on transport, on conventional fuels. climate and sustainability – 3rd edition, www. tcc-gsr.com. (iv) Expand public transit options: UNEP (2022), African cities turn to ‘green’ buses in (a) Invest in the development and implementation fight against pollution. Retrieved from UNEP: of efficient, green, and inclusive public https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/ transportation systems, such as Bus Rapid african-cities-turn-green-buses-fight-against- Transit (BRT) systems. pollution. (b) Develop and execute strategies for enhancing Endnotes and extending road networks; invest in the creation of efficient and sustainable public 1. International Energy Agency - IEA (2019), transportation systems; and actively pursue Energy and air pollution 2019. https://www.iea. international funding and partnerships to bolster org/topics/energy-and-air-pollution major infrastructure projects. 2. African Development Bank – AfDB (2021), AfDB References launches Africa clean transport programme. https://www.afdb.org/en/news-and-events/ African Agenda 2063 (n.d.), Goals and priority areas press-releases/afdb-launches-africa-clean- of Agenda 2063. Retrieved from African Union: transport-program-37709. https://au.int/en/agenda2063/goals. 3. UNEP (2020), West African Ministers adopt Ayetor, G., Mbonigaba, I., Ampofo, J. and Sunnu, cleaner fuels and vehicles standards. https:// A. (2021), “Investigating the state of road www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/west- vehicle emissions in Africa: A case study of african-ministers-adopt-cleaner-fuels-and- Ghana and Rwanda”. Transportation Research vehicles-standards. Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 11: 00409. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2021.100409. 4. National Automotive Industry Development Plan – NAIDP (2023), https://naddc.gov.ng/wp- EASAC (2019), Decarbonization of transport: content/uploads/2023/06/Nigerian-Automotive- Options and challenges. EASAC. Industry-Development-Plan-2023.pdf. Gauthier, A. and Weinstock, A. (2010), “Africa: 5. Clean Air Initiative for African Cities (2022), Transforming paratransit into BRT”. Built https://www.cleanairfund.org/clean-air-africas- cities/ Acknowledgements This policy brief was prepared by Dr Eliud Moyi (KIPPRA) and Ms Martha Naikumi (KIPPRA) About KIPPRA Policy Briefs For More Information Contact: KIPPRA Policy Briefs are aimed at a wide dissemination of the Institute’s policy research findings. The findings are Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis expected to stimulate discussion and also build capacity Bishops Road, Bishops Garden Towers in the public policy making process in Kenya. P.O. Box 56445-00200, Nairobi Tel: 2719933/4, Cell: 0736712724, 0724256078 KIPPRA acknowledges generous support from the Email:admin@kippra.or.ke Government of Kenya and development partners who Website: http://www.kippra.or.ke have continued to support the Institute’s activities over @KIPPRAKenya the years. 4 KIPPRA Policy Brief No. 24/2023-2024