1 
 
 
 
 
Table of Contents  
 
1. Performance in the Real Sector ............................................................................. 3 
2. International Markets .............................................................................................. 9 
3. Money Market ........................................................................................................ 15 
4. Fiscal Performance ............................................................................................... 19 
5. Capital Markets ..................................................................................................... 24 
6. Risk-related Factors ............................................................................................. 29 
 
 
 
 
  
2 
 
1. Performance in the Real Sector   
 
a) GDP Performance 
 
Figure 1: GDP growth, inflation and stock market performance   
8  3,000.00
7  2,850.00
6 5.6 5.6 5.4  2,700.00
5.1 4.9
5  2,550.00
4  2,400.00
3  2,250.00
2  2,100.00
1  1,950.00
0  1,800.00
-1 -0.3  1,650.00
Quarterly GDP Growth (%) Inflation (%) NSE20 Index
 
Data source: Central Bank of Kenya; Kenya National Bureau of Statistics;  
GDP figure for June 2020 from the World Economic Outlook, April 2020 
 
Figure 2: Economic performance of selected advanced and emerging markets      
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
-1.00
-2.00
-3.00
-4.00
-5.00
-6.00
-7.00
-8.00
-9.00
-10.00
-11.00
-12.00
-13.00
Jan-March 2019 April-June 2019 July-Sept 2019 Oct-Dec 2019 Jan-March 2020 June-Dec 2020
Kenya USA UK Japan China France Mexico Brazil S. Africa
 
Data Source: Country statistical offices; https://tradingeconomics.com/   
Figures January-December 2020 from the World Economic Outlook, June 2020 
3 
 
Inflation and Quarterly GDP (%)
Year-On-Year GDP Growth Rate (%)
Jan-19
Kenya
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
Kenya May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Kenya
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Kenya
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Kenya Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Kenya
 
Figure 3: Cement production and consumption (‘000 MT) and index of value of building 
plans   
580 568
565 516
550 464
535 412
520 360
505 308
490 256
475 204
460 152
445 100
Cement Production (000' MT) Cement Consumption ('000 MT)
Index of Value of Building Plans (Dec 1972=100)
 
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics 
 
 
Figure 4: Kenya Housing and Property Indices     
460 130
450
440 125
430
420 120
410
400 115
390
380 110
370
360 105
Hass Composite Property Sales Index Hass Composite Property Rental Index
KBA Housing Price Index (Fixed Base) KBA Housing Price Index (Moving Base)
 
Hass Composite Property Sales Index: Year 2000 = 100; KBA Housing Price Index (fixed base): Q1 – 2013 = 100.  
Data Source: Hass Property Index (http://hassconsult.co.ke/real-estate/hass-index/ )  
Kenya Bankers Association (https://www.kba.co.ke/house_price.php)  
4 
 
Hass Composite Index Cement Production & Consumption ('000 MT)
Jan-19
Jan-19
Feb-19 Feb-19
Mar-19 Mar-19
Apr-19 Apr-19
May-19 May-19
Jun-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Nov-19 Dec-19
Dec-19 Jan-20
Jan-20 Feb-20
Feb-20 Mar-20
Apr-20
Mar-20
KBA Housing Price Index Index of Value of Building Plans)
 
Figure 5: Intake of processed milk in the formal sector (million litres)     
 75.00
 70.00
 65.00
 60.00
 55.00
 50.00
 45.00
 40.00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Milk Intake in 2018 Milk Intake in 2019 Milk Intake in 2020
 
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics 
 
 
Figure 6: Monthly tourist arrivals* (number)   
225,000
205,000
185,000
165,000
145,000
125,000
105,000
85,000
65,000
45,000
25,000
5,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2018 2019 2020
 
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics; Kenya Tourism Research Institute; Central 
Bank of Kenya.   
*Total tourist arrivals (air, cruise and cross-border);     
 
5 
 
Number of Tourists Milk Intake (Million Litres)
b) Price movement 
 
Figure 7: Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index  
110.00 103
109.00 102.5
108.00 102
107.00
101.5
106.00
105.00 101
104.00 100.5
103.00 100
102.00 99.5
101.00 99
100.00
98.5
99.00
98.00 98
97.00 97.5
96.00 97
Producer Price Index Consumer Price Index
 
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics 
CPI base year: February 2019 = 100; PPI base year: March 2019 = 100  
 
 
Figure 8: Comparative Inflation for selected Countries in Africa     
24.0
22.0
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
Kenya Uganda Tanzania Rwanda Burundi S. Africa
Namibia Zambia Ghana Nigeria Ethiopia
 
Data Source: Country statistical offices  
 
6 
 
Inflation (%) Consumer Price Index 
Jan-19
Jan-19
Feb-19
Feb-19
Mar-19 Mar-19
Apr-19 Apr-19
May-19 May-19
Jun-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Sep-19 Oct-19
Oct-19 Nov-19
Nov-19 Dec-19
Jan-20
Dec-19
Feb-20
Jan-20
Mar-20
Feb-20
Apr-20
Mar-20 May-20
Apr-20 Jun-20
May-20
Jun-20 Producer Price Index
Figure 9: Domestic wholesale agriculture commodity prices (KSh./Kg) 
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
Kales Cereals Legumes Tubers Fruits & Vegetables
 
Data source: Calculated by KIPPRA using data from Ministry of Agriculture 
 
 
Figure 10: Contribution of selected CPI Baskets to overall Inflation (%)  
 5.00
 4.50
 4.00
 3.50
 3.00
 2.50
 2.00
 1.50
 1.00
 0.50
 -
 (0.50)
 (1.00)
Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages Clothing & Foot-wear
Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and other Fuels Health
Fuel Inflation
 
Data Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics and the Central Bank of Kenya      
 
 
7 
 
Contribution to Overall Inflation (%) Average Wholesale Price per Kg
Jan-19
Jan-19
Feb-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19 Mar-19
May-19 Apr-19
Jun-19
May-19
Jul-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Oct-19 Aug-19
Nov-19 Sep-19
Dec-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Nov-19
Feb-20
Dec-19
Mar-20
Apr-20 Jan-20
May-20 Feb-20
Jun-20
Mar-20
Figure 11: Average domestic pump prices and global crude oil prices  
 120.00  75.00
 115.00  70.00
 110.00  65.00
 105.00  60.00
 100.00  55.00
 95.00  50.00
 90.00  45.00
 85.00  40.00
 80.00  35.00
 75.00  30.00
 70.00  25.00
 65.00  20.00
 60.00  15.00
Motor Gasoline Premium Light Diesel Oil (Gasoil)
Illuminating Kerosene ADNOC Crude Oil Prices
 
Data Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics; Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority;  
https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/block/50 
 
 
Figure 12: Global crude oil prices, December 2019 – June 2020  
72.00
65.00
58.00
51.00
44.00
37.00
30.00
23.00
16.00
9.00
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Brent Crude Murban (ADNOC)
 
Data Source: https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/block/50 
 
  
8 
 
Crude Oil Price (USD/Barrel) Average Local Retail Price (KSh./Ltr)
Dec 02, 2019
Dec 06, 2019
Dec 12, 2019
Dec 18, 2019 Jan-19
Dec 24, 2019 Feb-19
Dec 31, 2019
Jan 07, 2020 Mar-19
Jan 13, 2020
Jan 17, 2020 Apr-19
Jan 23, 2020
Jan 29, 2020 May-19
Feb 04, 2020 Jun-19
Feb 10, 2020
Feb 14, 2020 Jul-19
Feb 20, 2020
Feb 26, 2020 Aug-19
Mar 03, 2020
Sep-19
Mar 09, 2020
Mar 16, 2020 Oct-19
Mar 20, 2020
Mar 27,2020 Nov-19
Apr 02, 2020
Apr 08, 2020 Dec-19
Apr 13, 2020
Jan-20
Apr 17, 2020
Apr 23, 2020 Feb-20
Apr 29, 2020
May 05, 2020 Mar-20
May 11, 2020
May 15, 2020 Apr-20
May 21, 2020
May-20
May 26, 2020
Jun 01, 2020 Jun-20
Jun 05, 2020
Jun 11, 2020
Jun 17, 2020
Jun 23, 2020
Jun 29, 2020 ADNOC Crude Oil Prices (US$ / Barrel)
2. International Markets  
 
Figure 13: Trends in coffee and tea production (MT), exports (Ksh millions) and auction 
prices (KSh/Kg)  
 
Figure 13(a): Monthly coffee production (MT)   
5,500.00
4,500.00
3,500.00
2,500.00
1,500.00
500.00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2020 2018 2019
 
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics; Nairobi Coffee Exchange 
(http://nairobicoffeeexchange.co.ke/); 
 
 
Figure 13(b): Monthly coffee exports (KSh. Million)   
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2020 2018 2019
 
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics; Nairobi Coffee Exchange 
(http://nairobicoffeeexchange.co.ke/); Figures for January and February 2020 are provisional.  
 
9 
 
Coffee Exports (KSh. Million) Coffee Production MT) 
Figure 13(c): Comparison between global coffee exports (MT) and Kenya coffee exports 
(% of global total exports)  
 720,000  0.90
 700,000  0.80
 680,000  0.70
 660,000
 0.60
 640,000
 0.50
 620,000
 0.40
 600,000
 0.30
 580,000
 560,000  0.20
 540,000  0.10
 520,000  -
Global Coffee Exports Kenya Coffee Exports
 
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics; Nairobi Coffee Exchange 
(http://nairobicoffeeexchange.co.ke/); International Coffee Organization 
(http://www.ico.org/coffee_prices.asp)  
 
Figure 13(d): Monthly Kenya coffee auction prices (KSh/Kg)   
 600.00
 550.00
 500.00
 450.00
 400.00
 350.00
 300.00
 250.00
 200.00
 150.00
2020 2018 2019
 
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics; Nairobi Coffee Exchange 
(http://nairobicoffeeexchange.co.ke/).   
 
10 
 
Coffee Auction Prices (KSh./Kg) Global Coffee Exports (MT)
January Jan-19
Feb-19
February
Mar-19
Apr-19
March
May-19
April Jun-19
Jul-19
May
Aug-19
June Sep-19
Oct-19
July Nov-19
Dec-19
August
Jan-20
September Feb-20
Mar-20
October
Apr-20
May-20
November
December
Kenya Coffee Exports (% of global exports)
Figure 13(e): Monthly tea production (MT)  
58,000
55,000
52,000
49,000
46,000
43,000
40,000
37,000
34,000
31,000
28,000
25,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2020 2018 2019
 
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics; East African Tea Trade Association 
 
 
Figure 13(f): Monthly tea exports (KSh. Million)  
15,500
14,500
13,500
12,500
11,500
10,500
9,500
8,500
7,500
6,500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2020 2018 2019
 
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics; East African Tea Trade Association 
 
11 
 
Kenay Tea Exports (KSh. Million) Kenya Tea Production (MT)
Figure 13(g): Monthly Kenya tea auction prices (KSh/Kg)   
 330.00
 310.00
 290.00
 270.00
 250.00
 230.00
 210.00
 190.00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2020 2018 2019
 
Data Source: KNBS; East Africa Tea Trade Association; Mombasa Tea Auction 
 
 
Figure 14: The exchange rate of Kenya shilling to global currencies  
140 140
135 135
130 130
125 125
120 120
115 115
110 110
105 105
100 100
95 95
90 90
85 85
80 80
US Dollar Index KES/USD KES/STG-POUND KES/EURO
 
Data source: Central Bank of Kenya; Kenya National Bureau of Statistics; 
https://www.investing.com/quotes/us-dollar-index-historical-data 
 
 
12 
 
Units of KES 1 to 1 USD, STG-Pound, Euro Tea Auction Prices (KSh./Kg)
01-Jan-19
22-Jan-19
12-Feb-19
05-Mar-19
26-Mar-19
16-Apr-19
07-May-19
28-May-19
18-Jun-19
09-Jul-19
30-Jul-19
20-Aug-19
10-Sep-19
01-Oct-19
22-Oct-19
12-Nov-19
03-Dec-19
24-Dec-19
14-Jan-20
04-Feb-20
25-Feb-20
17-Mar-20
07-Apr-20
28-Apr-20
19-May-20
09-Jun-20
30-Jun-20
US Dollar Index
Figure 15: The exchange rate of Kenya shilling to regional currencies  
0.12 7.75
0.11 7.53
0.10 7.30
0.09 7.08
0.08 6.85
0.07 6.63
0.06 6.40
0.05 6.18
0.04 5.95
0.03 5.73
0.02 5.50
KES/UGX KES/TZS KES/RWF KES/BIF KES/SA-Rand
 
Data source: Central Bank of Kenya  
 
 
Figure 16: Performance of select currencies against the US Dollar  
 
Data source: Country Statistics Offices; https://www.investing.com   
Percentage change in currencies against the US Dollar measured as end of period changes.  
USD-US Dollar; KES - Kenyan Shilling; UGX-Ugandan Shilling; TZS-Tanzanian Shilling; RWF-Rwandan Franc; BIF-
Burundian Franc; SA-South Africa; NAD-Namibian Dollar; ZMW-Zambian Kwacha; GHS-Ghanaian Cedi; NGN-
Nigerian Naira; ETB-Ethiopian Birr.  
13 
 
Units of KES to 1 USH, TSH, RWF, BIF
01-Jan-19
22-Jan-19
12-Feb-19
05-Mar-19
26-Mar-19
16-Apr-19
07-May-19
28-May-19
18-Jun-19
09-Jul-19
30-Jul-19
20-Aug-19
10-Sep-19
01-Oct-19
22-Oct-19
12-Nov-19
03-Dec-19
24-Dec-19
14-Jan-20
04-Feb-20
25-Feb-20
17-Mar-20
07-Apr-20
28-Apr-20
19-May-20
09-Jun-20
30-Jun-20
Units of KES to 1 SA-Rand
 
Figure 17: Months of import cover and diaspora remittances  
 6.50 300.0
 6.30 289.0
 6.10 278.0
 5.90 267.0
 5.70 256.0
 5.50 245.0
 5.30 234.0
 5.10 223.0
 4.90 212.0
 4.70 201.0
 4.50 190.0
Diaspora Remittances Months of Import cover
 
Data Source: Central Bank of Kenya  
  
14 
 
Months of Import Cover
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Diaspora Remitances (USD Million)
3. Money Market  
 
Figure 18: Interbank rate and volume, Repo and interest rates  
  
  
Data source: Central Bank of Kenya 
 
 
Figure 19: Treasury bill weighted average rate (%)  
10.5
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
91-Day 182-Day 364-Day
 
Data source: Central Bank of Kenya 
 
15 
 
07-Jan-19
18-Jan-19
29-Jan-19
09-Feb-19
20-Feb-19
03-Mar-19
14-Mar-19
25-Mar-19
05-Apr-19
16-Apr-19
27-Apr-19
08-May-19
19-May-19
30-May-19
10-Jun-19
21-Jun-19
02-Jul-19
13-Jul-19
24-Jul-19
04-Aug-19
15-Aug-19
26-Aug-19
06-Sep-19
17-Sep-19
28-Sep-19
09-Oct-19
20-Oct-19
31-Oct-19
11-Nov-19
22-Nov-19
03-Dec-19
14-Dec-19
25-Dec-19
05-Jan-20
16-Jan-20
27-Jan-20
07-Feb-20
18-Feb-20
29-Feb-20
11-Mar-20
22-Mar-20
02-Apr-20
13-Apr-20
24-Apr-20
05-May-20
16-May-20
27-May-20
07-Jun-20
18-Jun-20
29-Jun-20
Figure 20: Commercial banks’ excess reserves (%) in relation to the 5.25% CRR 
6.30
6…
6.20
6.10
6.00
5.89
5.90
5.87
5.80 5.…
5.77 5.795.71
5.70 5.68
5.60 5.62
5.50 5.57 5.51
5.38 5.44
5.40 5.39
5.38
5.30
 
Data source: Central Bank of Kenya;  
CRR = Cash Reserves Requirement  
 
 
Figure 21: Mobile money transactions  
 180.00  390.00
 160.00  380.00
 140.00  370.00
 360.00
 120.00
 350.00
 100.00
 340.00
 80.00
 330.00
 60.00
 320.00
 40.00  310.00
 20.00  300.00
 -  290.00
Mobile Money Subscriptions (Millions) Number of Transactions (Millions)
Value of Transactions (KSh Billion)
 
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics;  
Note: The mobile money subscriptions exceed total adult population since this is based on registered SIM Cards in 
transacting electronic gadgets (Individual mobile phones and Point of Sale gadgets). In addition, 30% of mobile users 
in Kenya own more than 1 SIM Card (https://www.ca.go.ke).  
 
16 
 
Subscriptiosn and Transactions (Number) Commercial banks’ excess reserves (%) in relation 
to  the  5.25% CRR
Jan-19 Jan-19
Feb-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19 Mar-19
May-19 Apr-19
Jun-19
May-19
Jul-19
Aug-19 Jun-19
Sep-19 Jul-19
Oct-19
Aug-19
Nov-19
Dec-19 Sep-19
Jan-20 Oct-19
Feb-20
Nov-19
Mar-20
Apr-20 Dec-19
May-20 Jan-20
Feb-20
Value of Transactions (KSh. Billion) Mar-20
 
Figure 22: Kenyan banking sector performance  
 
Figure 22 (a) Return on asset (%) 
3.60
3.31
3.30 3.15
2.92
3.00
2.61
2.70
2.35
2.40
2.09
2.10
1.82
1.80
1.52
1.50
1.23
1.20 0.96
0.90 0.77
0.56
0.60 0.50
0.30 0.27
0.30
0.00
 
Data Source: Calculated using data from Central Bank of Kenya  
 
 
Figure 22 (b) Liquidity ratio and ratio of gross NPL to gross loans, (%)  
13.0000 51.5
12.9000 51.2
12.8000 50.9
12.7000 50.6
12.6000 50.3
12.5000 50.0
12.4000 49.7
12.3000 49.4
12.2000 49.1
12.1000 48.8
12.0000 48.5
11.9000 48.2
Ratio of Gross NPL/Gross loans Liquidity Ratio
 
Data Source: Calculated using data from Central Bank of Kenya  
 
17 
 
Ratio of Gross NPL to Gross Loans (%) Return on Asset (%)
Jan-19
Jan-19
Feb-19
Feb-19
Mar-19 Mar-19
Apr-19 Apr-19
May-19 May-19
Jun-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19 Oct-19
Dec-19 Nov-19
Jan-20
Dec-19
Feb-20
Jan-20
Mar-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Liquidity Ratio (%)
 
Figure 23: Banking sector credit   
 32.00  9.80
 28.00  8.70
 24.00  7.60
 20.00  6.50
 16.00  5.40
 12.00  4.30
 8.00  3.20
 4.00  2.10
Pubilc Sector Proportion of Banking sector credit (%)
Manufacturing sector credit proportion of Banking sector credit (%)
Private Sector Credit Growth (%)
 
Data Source: Central Bank of Kenya 
 
 
Figure 24: Monetary policy stance for selected countries in Africa   
 17.00
 16.00
 15.00
 14.00
 13.00
 12.00
 11.00
 10.00
 9.00
 8.00
 7.00
 6.00
 5.00
 4.00
 3.00
Kenya Uganda Tanzania Rwanda
Ghana Nigeria Zambia S. Africa
 
Source: Country Central Banks  
  
18 
 
Public and Manufacturign sector proportion of 
Banking sector credit (%)
Jan-19
Feb-19
Jan-19
Mar-19
Feb-19
Apr-19
Mar-19
May-19
Apr-19
Jun-19
May-19
Jul-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Aug-19
Oct-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Oct-19
Dec-19 Nov-19
Jan-20 Dec-19
Feb-20 Jan-20
Mar-20 Feb-20
Apr-20 Mar-20
May-20
Jun-20
Private Sector Credit Growth (%)
4. Fiscal Performance  
 
Figure 25: Fiscal deficit and county transfers (KSh. Billion)  
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
-500
-600
-700
-800
-900
-1000
July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar April May June
Fiscal Deficit 2017/18 County Transfer 2017/18 Fiscal Deficit 2018/19
County Transfer 2018/19 Fiscal Deficit 2019/20 County Transfer 2019/20
 
Data Source: Central Bank of Kenya; Figures for February and March 2020 are provisional 
 
 
Figure 26: Monthly utilization of revenue against target  
  
  
Data Source: Monthly Gazette Notices, The National Treasury and Planning  
 
 
19 
 
Figure 27: Exchequer allocation to Ministry of Health as a % of total Issues to Ministries, 
Agencies and Departments   
 9.50
 8.50
 7.50
 6.50
 5.50
 4.50
 3.50
 2.50
 1.50
 0.50
Recurrent Exchequer Issues as a % of total Issues to MDAs
Development Exchequer Issues as a % of total Issues to MDAs
 
Data Source: Monthly Gazette Notices, The National Treasury and Planning  
 
 
Figure 28: Composition of Government Revenue (KSh Billion)  
 5,000.00
 4,500.00
 4,000.00
 3,500.00
 3,000.00
 2,500.00
 2,000.00
 1,500.00
 1,000.00
 500.00
 -
Jan-March 2019 April-June 2019 July-Sept 2019 Oct-Dec 2019 Jan-March 2020 April-June 2020
Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Grants Total Revenue
 
Data Source: Calculated using data from Central Bank of Kenya and The National Treasury 
data published on monthly Kenya Gazette Notices; figures for April-June 2020 are provisional.  
 
20 
 
Revenue (KSh. Billion) Recurrent & Development Issues (%) to Health 
Sector
Jan-19
2,723.78 
391.03 Feb-19
38.57 
3,153.38 Mar-19
Apr-19
3,884.79 
587.45 May-19
69.68 
4,541.92 Jun-19
Jul-19
697.44
59.42 Aug-19
5.72
Sep-19
781.01
Oct-19
1,864.45 
358.37 Nov-19
28.24 
2,251.04 Dec-19
Jan-20
2,989.92 
372.45 Feb-20
37.63 
3,599.29 Mar-20
Apr-20
4,023.54 
342.67 May-20
30.39 
4,396.61 Jun-20
 
Figure 29: Growth in tax revenue (%) and quarterly GDP growth (%) 
12.00 11.30 11.21
10.55
10.14
10.00 9.54
9.78 9.77
8.16
8.00 7.63 7.14
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
Q1-2018 - Q1-2019 Q2-2018 - Q2-2019 Q3-2018 - Q3-2019 Q4-2018 - Q4-2019 Q1-2019 - Q1-2020
Nominal Quarterly GDP Growth Nominal Tax Revenue Growth
 
Data Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics and Central Bank of Kenya 
 
 
Figure 30: Total debt (KSh. Billion) and proportionate shares of domestic and foreign debt  
 6,500.00
 5,500.00
 4,500.00
 3,500.00
 2,500.00
 1,500.00
 500.00
 (500.00)
Domestic debt Public & Publicly Guaranteed External debt Total Debt
 
Data Source: Calculated using data from Central Bank of Kenya 
 
 
21 
 
KSh. Billions Growth in Tax Revenue and Quarterly GDP (%)
Mar-19 49.37% 50.63%
Jun-19 48.34% 51.66%
Sep-19 49.79% 50.21%
Dec-19 47.96% 52.04%
Mar-20 47.86% 52.14%
Figure 31: Composition of government domestic debt by instrument (%)   
100%
90%
80%
70%
61.34 62.48 63.49 65.81 67.67 68.94
60%
50%
40%
30%
20% 36.30 35.78 33.55 31.20 29.86 28.58
10%
0%
Jan-March 2019 April-June 2019 July-Sept 2019 Oct-Dec2019 Jan-March 2020 April-June 2020
Treasury Bills (excluding Repos) Treasury Bonds CBK Overdraft to Govt Other domestic debt
 
Data Source: Calculated using data from Central Bank of Kenya  
 
 
Figure 32: Composition of government domestic debt by holder (%)  
100%
4.49 4.47 4.27 4.34 4.29 4.4
90%
80% 27.56 27.94 28.34 28.38 28.59 29.16
70%
7.26 7.06 7.06 6.97 6.30 5.77
60%
6.10 6.19 6.18 6.51 6.33 6.2
50%
40%
30%
54.60 54.33 54.15 53.80 54.49 54.46
20%
10%
0%
Jan-March 2019 April-June 2019 July-Sept 2019 Oct-Dec 2019 Jan-March 2020 April-June 2020
Banking Institutions Insurance Companies Parastatals Pension Funds Other investors
 
Data Source: Calculated using data from Central bank of Kenya  
 
 
 
 
22 
 
Figure 33: Composition of external debt: proportionate shares of bilateral, multilateral, 
commercial bank and export credit  
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
Jan-March 2019 April-June 2019 July-Sept 2019 Oct-Dec 2019 Jan-March 2020
Bilateral Multilateral Commercial Banks Export Credit
 
Data Source: Calculated using data from Central bank of Kenya  
 
  
23 
 
% of External Debt
34.17 31.22 34.00
33.89 31.00 34.53
32.72 32.51 34.22
32.76 33.24 33.46
32.65 33.00 33.81
5. Capital Markets  
 
Figure 34: Bond volumes traded (Ksh million) and FTSE NSE Kenya government bond 
price Index  
99.00 100000.00
98.50 91200.00
98.00 82400.00
97.50 73600.00
97.00 64800.00
96.50 56000.00
96.00 47200.00
95.50 38400.00
95.00 29600.00
94.50 20800.00
94.00 12000.00
FTSE NSE Govt Bond Price Index Bond Volumes Traded (KSh. Million)
 
Data Source: Nairobi Securities Exchange; Central Bank of Kenya 
 
 
Figure 35: The 10-year Kenya Eurobond (2024) yield (%)  
 10.700
 10.200
 9.700
 9.200
 8.700
 8.200
 7.700
 7.200
 6.700
 6.200
 5.700
 5.200
 4.700
 4.200
10-year Eurobond Yield - 2024 (%)
 
Data Source: Central Bank of Kenya 
 
24 
 
Yield (%) FTSE NSE Kenya Government Bond Price Index
02-Jan-19 Jan-19
16-Jan-19
30-Jan-19 Feb-19
13-Feb-19
27-Feb-19 Mar-19
13-Mar-19
27-Mar-19 Apr-19
10-Apr-19
May-19
24-Apr-19
08-May-19 Jun-19
22-May-19
05-Jun-19 Jul-19
19-Jun-19
03-Jul-19 Aug-19
17-Jul-19
31-Jul-19 Sep-19
14-Aug-19
28-Aug-19 Oct-19
11-Sep-19
25-Sep-19 Nov-19
09-Oct-19
Dec-19
23-Oct-19
06-Nov-19 Jan-20
20-Nov-19
04-Dec-19 Feb-20
18-Dec-19
01-Jan-20 Mar-20
15-Jan-20
29-Jan-20 Apr-20
12-Feb-20
26-Feb-20 May-20
11-Mar-20
25-Mar-20 Jun-20
08-Apr-20
22-Apr-20
06-May-20
20-May-20
03-Jun-20
17-Jun-20 Bond Volumes Traded (KSh. Million)
01-Jul-20
Figure 36: Stock market performance  
3100.00
3000.00
2900.00
2800.00
2700.00
2600.00
2500.00
2400.00
2300.00
2200.00
2100.00
2000.00
1900.00
1800.00
NSE20 Index Mkt Cap (KSh Bn)
 
Data Source: Nairobi Securities Exchange 
 
 
Figure 37: Stock value turnover ratio (%)  
0.130
0.120
0.110
0.100
0.090
0.080
0.070
0.060
0.050
0.040
0.030
0.020
0.010
0.000
 
Data Source: Nairobi Securities Exchange; Calculated as equity turnover value (Ksh million)/ 
Market capitalization (Ksh million)   
 
25 
 
Stock Turnover Ratio (%)
01-Jan-19
01-Jan-19 22-Jan-19
22-Jan-19 12-Feb-19
12-Feb-19
05-Mar-19
05-Mar-19
26-Mar-19
26-Mar-19
16-Apr-19
16-Apr-19
07-May-19
07-May-19
28-May-19
28-May-19
18-Jun-19
18-Jun-19
09-Jul-19
09-Jul-19
30-Jul-19
30-Jul-19
20-Aug-19
20-Aug-19
10-Sep-19
10-Sep-19
01-Oct-19
01-Oct-19
22-Oct-19
22-Oct-19
12-Nov-19
12-Nov-19
03-Dec-19
03-Dec-19
24-Dec-19 24-Dec-19
14-Jan-20 14-Jan-20
04-Feb-20 04-Feb-20
25-Feb-20 25-Feb-20
17-Mar-20 17-Mar-20
07-Apr-20 07-Apr-20
28-Apr-20 28-Apr-20
19-May-20 19-May-20
09-Jun-20 09-Jun-20
30-Jun-20 30-Jun-20
Figure 38: Foreign trading in the stock market  
23,500 160
21,500 144
19,500 128
17,500 112
15,500 96
13,500 80
11,500 64
9,500 48
7,500 32
5,500 16
3,500 0
Average Foreign Participation to Equity Turnover (%) Foreign Purchases (FP)
Foreign Sales (FS) Equity Market Turnover (ET)
 
Data Source: Central Bank of Kenya; AIB Capital Ltd (http://www.aibcapital.com/research).  
 
 
Figure 39: Stock market performance of selected advanced and emerging markets      
 
Figure 39(a): USA stock markets  
14,000 29,000
13,000 28,000
12,000 27,000
11,000 26,000
10,000 25,000
9,000 24,000
8,000 23,000
7,000 22,000
6,000 21,000
NYSE Composite Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)
 
Data source: Country Stock Exchanges; http://www.investing.com  
 
26 
 
NYSE Composite & Nasda 100 Foreign Purchases & Sales, Equity Turnover (KSh. 
Million)
Jan-19
Jan-19
Feb-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
Apr-19
May-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20 Dec-19
Feb-20 Jan-20
Mar-20 Feb-20
Apr-20 Mar-20
May-20 Apr-20
Jun-20 May-20
Jun-20
Dow Jones Industrial Average Average Foreign Participation to Equity Turnover (%)
Figure 39(b): European stock markets  
8,500 1,210
8,000 1,174
7,500 1,138
7,000 1,102
6,500 1,066
6,000 1,030
5,500 994
5,000 958
4,500 922
4,000 886
3,500 850
London Stock Exchange Group PLC (LSE) EuroNext 100 (N100)
 
Data source: Country Stock Exchanges; http://www.investing.com  
 
 
Figure 39(c): Asian stock markets  
3,200 24,000
3,000 23,460
2,800 22,920
2,600 22,380
2,400 21,840
2,200 21,300
2,000 20,760
1,800 20,220
1,600 19,680
1,400 19,140
1,200 18,600
Shanghai Composite (SSEC) SZSE Composite Index (SZSC) Nikkei 225 (N225)
 
Data source: Country Stock Exchanges; http://www.investing.com  
 
27 
 
SSCE & SZSC London Stock Exchange
Jan-19 Jan-19
Feb-19 Feb-19
Mar-19 Mar-19
Apr-19 Apr-19
May-19 May-19
Jun-19 Jun-19
Jul-19 Jul-19
Aug-19 Aug-19
Sep-19 Sep-19
Oct-19 Oct-19
Nov-19 Nov-19
Dec-19 Dec-19
Jan-20 Jan-20
Feb-20 Feb-20
Mar-20 Mar-20
Apr-20 Apr-20
May-20 May-20
Jun-20 Jun-20
Nikkei 225 EuroNext 100
Figure 39(d): African stock markets  
3,700 1,860
3,500 1,742
3,300 1,624
3,100 1,507
2,900 1,389
2,700 1,271
2,500 1,153
2,300 1,036
2,100 918
1,900 800
FTSE South Africa (FTWIZAFL) NSE20 (Kenya) EGX100 (Egypt) NGSE30 (Nigeria)
 
Data source: Country Stock Exchanges; http://www.investing.com  
 
 
  
28 
 
FTWIZAFL & NSE20
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
EGX100 & NGSE30
6. Risk-related Factors  
 
Figure 40: Kenya purchasing managers’ index  
 
Data Source: Stanbic Bank (https://www.stanbicbank.co.ke); IHS-Markit (https://ihsmarkit.com)   
Key: 50.0 = Neutral; Above 50.0 = Expansion; Below 50.0 = Contraction 
 
 
Figure 41: Mean annual and seasonal rainfall (millimeters)   
1,200
1,083.1 
1,100
1,000 912.3 
900
800
703.9 675.3 
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
March-May June-August October-December Annual
 
Data Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics; Kenya Meteorological Department; 
https://www.worldweatheronline.com/         
29 
 
Average Rainfall in Milimeters
350.7 
104.6 
142.8 
354.0 
104.0 
155.0 
599.6 
191.5 
204.3 
262.7 
65.2 
584.4 
491.73
 
Figure 42: Mean monthly temperature (degrees celsius)    
26.50
26.00
25.50
25.00
24.50
24.00
23.50
23.00
22.50
22.00
21.50
21.00
20.50
20.00
2018 2019 2020
 
Data Source: Kenya Meteorological Department; https://www.worldweatheronline.com/     
 
 
 
Table 1: Fitch rating for Kenya, 18 June 2020 
Rating Type Outlook Rating Action Prior 
B+ LTR (Long term Issuer default  rating)  Negative Affirmed B+ 
B STR (Short-term Issuer default rating)   Affirmed B 
B Local Currency Short Term Issuer Default Rating   Affirmed B 
B+ Country Ceiling   Downgrade BB- 
B+ Local Currency Long Term Issuer Default Rating Negative Affirmed B+ 
Data source: https://www.fitchratings.com/entity/kenya-86485911#ratings 
 
 
 
 
30 
 
Mean Monthly Temperature 
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
 
Figure 43: Covid-19 statistics for Kenya, 01 March – 17 July 2020     
  
  
Data source: World Health Organization; Ministry of Health  
 
 
 
 
 
  
31 
 
Figure 44: Vulnerability of Sub-Saharan Africa countries to COVID-19 shock in 2020     
 
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, April 2020 
 
 
 
32 
 
 
33