QUARTERLY MARKET ANALYSIS REPORT 
   
  
 
 
 
 
January – March 2020 
 
 
 
 
INSIDE 
   
1. Performance in the Real Sector .................................................................................................... 2 
2. International Markets ....................................................................................................................... 8 
3. Money Market .................................................................................................................................. 14 
4. Fiscal Performance ........................................................................................................................ 18 
5. Capital Markets ............................................................................................................................... 23 
6. Risk-related Factors ...................................................................................................................... 28 
 
 
 
 
  
1. Performance in the Real Sector   
 
a) GDP Performance 
 
Figure 1: GDP growth, inflation and stock market performance   
 7.0  3,900.00
 6.0  3,600.00
 3,300.00
 5.0
 3,000.00
 4.0
 2,700.00
 3.0
 2,400.00
 2.0  2,100.00
 1.0  1,800.00
Quarterly GDP Growth (%) Inflation (%) NSE20 Index
 
Data source: Central Bank of Kenya; Kenya National Bureau of Statistics;  
Figure for March 2020 from the World Economic Outlook, April 2020 
 
 
Figure 2: Economic performance of selected advanced and emerging markets      
7.00 Kenya
Kenya Kenya Kenya
6.00 Kenya
5.00
4.00
3.00 Kenya
2.00
1.00
0.00
-1.00
-2.00
-3.00
-4.00
-5.00
-6.00
-7.00
Oct-Dec 2018 Jan-March 2019 April-June 2019 July-Sept 2019 Oct-Dec 2019 Jan-Dec 2020
Kenya USA UK Japan China France Mexico Brazil S. Africa
 
Data Source: Country statistical offices; https://tradingeconomics.com/   
Figures January-December 2020 from the World Economic Outlook, April 2020 
 
2 
 
Year-On-Year GDP Growth Rate (%) Inflation and Quarterly GDP (%)
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
NSE20 Insex
Figure 3: Cement production and consumption (‘000 MT) and index of value of building 
plans   
515.00 292.00
505.00
260.00
495.00
228.00
485.00
196.00
475.00
164.00
465.00
132.00
455.00
445.00 100.00
Cement Production (000' MT) Cement Consumption ('000 MT)
Index of Value of Building Plans (Dec 1972=100)
 
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics 
 
 
Figure 4: Kenya Housing and Property Indices     
460 130
450
440 125
430
420 120
410
400 115
390
380 110
370
360 105
Hass Composite Property Sales Index Hass Composite Property Rental Index
KBA Housing Price Index (Fixed Base) KBA Housing Price Index (Moving Base)
 
Hass Composite Property Sales Index: Year 2000 = 100; KBA Housing Price Index (fixed base): Q1 – 2013 = 100.  
Data Source: Hass Property Index (http://hassconsult.co.ke/real-estate/hass-index/ )  
Kenya Bankers Association (https://www.kba.co.ke/house_price.php)  
3 
 
Hass Composite Index Cement Production & Consumption ('000 MT)
Oct-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Jan-19
Feb-19 Feb-19
Mar-19 Mar-19
Apr-19 Apr-19
May-19 May-19
Jun-19 Jun-19
Jul-19 Jul-19
Aug-19 Aug-19
Sep-19 Sep-19
Oct-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Dec-19
KBA Housing Price Index Index of Value of Building Plans)
 
Figure 5: Intake of processed milk in the formal sector (million litres)     
 70.00
 65.00
 60.00
 55.00
 50.00
 45.00
 40.00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Milk Intake in 2018 Milk Intake in 2019
 
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics 
 
 
Figure 6: Monthly tourist arrivals* (number)   
215,000
200,000
185,000
170,000
155,000
140,000
125,000
110,000
95,000
80,000
65,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2018 2019 2020
 
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics; Kenya Tourism Research Institute; Central 
Bank of Kenya.   
*Total tourist arrivals (air, cruise and cross-border);     
 
4 
 
Number of Tourist Arrivals Milk Intake (Million Litres)
b) Price movement 
 
Figure 7: Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index  
108.0 103.0
107.0 102.5
106.0 102.0
105.0 101.5
104.0 101.0
103.0 100.5
102.0 100.0
101.0 99.5
100.0 99.0
99.0 98.5
98.0 98.0
97.0 97.5
96.0 97.0
Producer Price Index Consumer Price Index
 
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics 
CPI base year: February 2019 = 100; PPI base year: March 2019 = 100  
 
Figure 8: Comparative Inflation for selected Countries in Africa     
 24.00
 22.00
 20.00
 18.00
 16.00
 14.00
 12.00
 10.00
 8.00
 6.00
 4.00
 2.00
 -
 (2.00)
 (4.00)
 (6.00)
 (8.00)
 (10.00)
Kenya Uganda Tanzania Rwanda Burundi S. Africa
Namibia Zambia Ghana Nigeria Ethiopia
 
Data Source: Country statistical offices  
 
5 
 
Inflation (%) Consumer Price Index 
Sep-18
Oct-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Dec-18
Jan-19 Jan-19
Feb-19 Feb-19
Mar-19 Mar-19
Apr-19
Apr-19
May-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jun-19 Jul-19
Jul-19 Aug-19
Aug-19 Sep-19
Oct-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Dec-19 Feb-20
Jan-20 Mar-20
Feb-20
Mar-20 Producer Price Index
Figure 9: Domestic wholesale agriculture commodity prices (KSh./Kg) 
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
Kales Cereals
 
Data source: Calculated by KIPPRA using data from Ministry of Agriculture 
 
 
Figure 10: Contribution of selected CPI Baskets to overall Inflation (%)  
 5.00
 4.50
 4.00
 3.50
 3.00
 2.50
 2.00
 1.50
 1.00
 0.50
 -
 (0.50)
 (1.00)
Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages Clothing & Foot-wear
Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and other Fuels Health
Fuel Inflation
 
Data Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics and the Central Bank of Kenya      
 
 
6 
 
Contribution to Overall Inflation (%) Averaeg Wholesale Price per Kg
Oct-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Jan-19
Feb-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
Apr-19
May-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Jan-20
Feb-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Mar-20
Figure 11: Average domestic pump prices and global crude oil prices  
 120.00  83.00
 115.00  76.00
 110.00  69.00
 105.00  62.00
 100.00  55.00
 95.00  48.00
 90.00  41.00
 85.00  34.00
 80.00  27.00
 75.00  20.00
Motor Gasoline Premium Light Diesel Oil (Gasoil)
Illuminating Kerosene ADNOC Crude Oil Prices
 
Data Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics; Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority;  
https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/block/50 
 
 
Figure 12: Global crude oil prices, December 2019 – March 2020  
73.00
68.00
63.00
58.00
53.00
48.00
43.00
38.00
33.00
28.00
23.00
18.00
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Brent Crude Murban (ADNOC)
 
Data Source: https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/block/50 
 
  
7 
 
Crude Oil Price (USD/Barrel) Average Local Retail Price (KSh./Ltr)
Dec 02, 2019
Dec 05, 2019 Oct-18
Dec 10, 2019
Nov-18
Dec 13, 2019
Dec 18, 2019 Dec-18
Dec 23, 2019 Jan-19
Dec 27, 2019
Feb-19
Jan 02, 2020
Mar-19
Jan 07, 2020
Jan 10, 2020 Apr-19
Jan 15, 2020 May-19
Jan 20, 2020
Jun-19
Jan 23, 2020
Jan 28, 2020 Jul-19
Jan 31, 2020 Aug-19
Feb 05, 2020
Sep-19
Feb 10, 2020
Feb 13, 2020 Oct-19
Feb 18, 2020 Nov-19
Feb 21, 2020
Dec-19
Feb 26, 2020
Mar 02, 2020 Jan-20
Mar 05, 2020 Feb-20
Mar 10, 2020
Mar-20
Mar 16, 2020
Mar 19, 2020
Mar 24, 2020
Mar 30, 2020 ADNOC Crude Oil Prices (US$ / Barrel)
2. International Markets  
 
Figure 13: Trends in coffee and tea production (metric tonnes), exports (Ksh millions) 
and auction prices (KSh/Kg)  
 
Figure 13(a): Monthly coffee production (MT)   
5,500.00
4,500.00
3,500.00
2,500.00
1,500.00
500.00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2020 2018 2019
 
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics; Nairobi Coffee Exchange 
(http://nairobicoffeeexchange.co.ke/); 
 
 
Figure 13(b): Monthly coffee exports (KSh. Million)   
3,500.00
3,000.00
2,500.00
2,000.00
1,500.00
1,000.00
500.00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2020 2018 2019
 
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics; Nairobi Coffee Exchange 
(http://nairobicoffeeexchange.co.ke/); Figures for January and February 2020 are provisional.  
 
8 
 
Coffee Exports (KSh. Million) Coffee Production MT) 
Figure 13(c): Comparison between global coffee exports (MT) and Kenya coffee exports 
(% of global total exports)  
 720,000  0.90
 700,000  0.80
 680,000  0.70
 660,000
 0.60
 640,000
 0.50
 620,000
 0.40
 600,000
 0.30
 580,000
 560,000  0.20
 540,000  0.10
 520,000  -
Global Coffee Exports Kenya Coffee Exports
 
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics; Nairobi Coffee Exchange 
(http://nairobicoffeeexchange.co.ke/); International Coffee Organization 
(http://www.ico.org/coffee_prices.asp)  
 
Figure 13(d): Monthly Kenya coffee auction prices (KSh/Kg)   
600.00
550.00
500.00
450.00
400.00
350.00
300.00
250.00
200.00
150.00
2018 2019 2020
 
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics; Nairobi Coffee Exchange 
(http://nairobicoffeeexchange.co.ke/).   
 
9 
 
Coffee Auction Prices (KSh./Kg) Global Coffee Exports (MT)
January Oct-18
Nov-18
February
Dec-18
March Jan-19
Feb-19
April Mar-19
Apr-19
May
May-19
June Jun-19
Jul-19
July
Aug-19
Sep-19
August
Oct-19
September Nov-19
Dec-19
October
Jan-20
November Feb-20
December
Kenya Coffee Exports (% of global exports)
Figure 13(e): Monthly tea production (MT)  
52,000
49,000
46,000
43,000
40,000
37,000
34,000
31,000
28,000
25,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2018 2019
 
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics; East African Tea Trade Association 
 
 
Figure 13(f): Monthly tea exports (KSh. Million)  
15500
14500
13500
12500
11500
10500
9500
8500
7500
6500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2020 2018 2019
 
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics; East African Tea Trade Association 
 
 
 
10 
 
Kenay Tea Exports (KSh. Million) Kenya Tea Production (MT)
Figure 13(g): Monthly Kenya tea auction prices (KSh/Kg)   
Tea Auction Prices (KSh./Kg)
330.00
310.00
290.00
270.00
250.00
230.00
210.00
190.00
2017 2018 2019 2020
 
Data Source: KNBS; East Africa Tea Trade Association; Mombasa Tea Auction 
 
 
Figure 14: The exchange rate of Kenya shilling to global currencies  
 140.00  150.00
 130.00  140.00
 130.00
 120.00
 120.00
 110.00
 110.00
 100.00
 100.00
 90.00  90.00
 80.00  80.00
US Dollar Index KES/USD KES/STG-POUND KES/EURO
 
Data source: Central Bank of Kenya; Kenya National Bureau of Statistics; 
https://www.investing.com/quotes/us-dollar-index-historical-data 
 
 
11 
 
Units of KES 1 to 1 USD, STG-Pound, Euro Tea Auction Prices (KSh./Kg)
01-Oct-18
22-Oct-18 January
12-Nov-18
03-Dec-18
February
24-Dec-18
14-Jan-19
04-Feb-19 March
25-Feb-19
18-Mar-19
April
08-Apr-19
29-Apr-19
20-May-19 May
10-Jun-19
01-Jul-19
June
22-Jul-19
12-Aug-19
02-Sep-19 July
23-Sep-19
14-Oct-19
August
04-Nov-19
25-Nov-19
16-Dec-19 September
06-Jan-20
27-Jan-20 October
17-Feb-20
09-Mar-20
30-Mar-20 November
December
US Dollar Index
Figure 15: The exchange rate of Kenya shilling to regional currencies  
0.1200  7.7000
0.1100  7.5000
0.1000  7.3000
0.0900  7.1000
0.0800  6.9000
0.0700  6.7000
0.0600  6.5000
0.0500  6.3000
0.0400  6.1000
0.0300  5.9000
0.0200  5.7000
KES/UGX KES/TZS KES/RWF KES/BIF KES/SA-Rand
 
Data source: Central Bank of Kenya  
 
 
Figure 16: Performance of select currencies against the US Dollar  
 
Data source: Country Statistics Offices; https://www.investing.com   
Percentage change in currencies against the US Dollar measured as end of period changes.  
USD-US Dollar; KES - Kenyan Shilling; UGX-Ugandan Shilling; TZS-Tanzanian Shilling; RWF-Rwandan Franc; BIF-
Burundian Franc; SA-South Africa; NAD-Namibian Dollar; ZMW-Zambian Kwacha; GHS-Ghanaian Cedi; NGN-
Nigerian Naira; ETB-Ethiopian Birr.  
12 
 
Units of KES to 1 USH, TSH, RWF, BIF
01-Oct-18
22-Oct-18
12-Nov-18
03-Dec-18
24-Dec-18
14-Jan-19
04-Feb-19
25-Feb-19
18-Mar-19
08-Apr-19
29-Apr-19
20-May-19
10-Jun-19
01-Jul-19
22-Jul-19
12-Aug-19
02-Sep-19
23-Sep-19
14-Oct-19
04-Nov-19
25-Nov-19
16-Dec-19
06-Jan-20
27-Jan-20
17-Feb-20
09-Mar-20
30-Mar-20
Units of KES to 1 SA-Rand
 
Figure 17: Months of import cover and diaspora remittances  
 6.5 300.0
 6.3 287.0
 6.1 274.0
 5.9 261.0
 5.7 248.0
 5.5 235.0
 5.3 222.0
 5.1 209.0
 4.9 196.0
 4.7 183.0
 4.5 170.0
Diaspora Remittances Months of Import cover
 
Data Source: Central Bank of Kenya  
  
13 
 
Months of Import Cover
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Diaspora Remitances (USD Million)
3. Money Market  
 
Figure 18: Interbank rate and volume, Repo and interest rates  
  
  
Data source: Central Bank of Kenya 
 
 
Figure 19: Treasury bill weighted average rate (%)  
10.2
9.7
9.2
8.7
8.2
7.7
7.2
6.7
6.2
91-Day 182-Day 364-Day
 
Data source: Central Bank of Kenya 
14 
 
Weighted Average Rate (%)
01-Oct-18
22-Oct-18
12-Nov-18
03-Dec-18
24-Dec-18
14-Jan-19
04-Feb-19
25-Feb-19
18-Mar-19
08-Apr-19
29-Apr-19
20-May-19
10-Jun-19
01-Jul-19
22-Jul-19
12-Aug-19
02-Sep-19
23-Sep-19
14-Oct-19
04-Nov-19
25-Nov-19
16-Dec-19
06-Jan-20
27-Jan-20
17-Feb-20
09-Mar-20
30-Mar-20
 
Figure 20: Commercial banks’ excess reserves (%) in relation to the 5.25% CRR 
6.10
6.00 6.02
5.89
5.90
5.87
5.79
5.80
5.70 5.77 5.71 5.68
5.60 5.62
5.56 5.57
5.50 5.51
5.44
5.40 5.39
5.38
5.30 5.38
 
Data source: Central Bank of Kenya;  
CRR = Cash Reserves Requirement  
 
 
Figure 21: Mobile money transactions  
 180.00  390.00
 160.00  380.00
 140.00  370.00
 120.00  360.00
 100.00  350.00
 80.00  340.00
 60.00  330.00
 40.00  320.00
 20.00  310.00
 -  300.00
Mobile Money Subscriptions (Millions) Number of Transactions (Millions)
Value of Transactions (KSh Billion)
 
Data source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics;  
Note: The mobile money subscriptions exceed total adult population since this is based on registered SIM Cards in 
transacting electronic gadgets (Individual mobile phones and Point of Sale gadgets). In addition, 30% of mobile users 
in Kenya own more than 1 SIM Card (https://www.ca.go.ke).  
 
15 
 
Subscriptiosn and Transactions (Number) Commercial banks’ excess reserves (%) in 
relation to  the  5.25% CRR
Oct-18 Nov-18
Nov-18 Dec-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Jan-19
Feb-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Mar-19
Apr-19 Apr-19
May-19 May-19
Jun-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19 Oct-19
Dec-19 Nov-19
Dec-19
Value of Transactions (KSh. Billion) Jan-20
Figure 22: Kenyan banking sector performance  
 
Figure 22 (a) Return on asset (%) 
3.60 3.43
3.25 3.31
3.30 3.15
2.87 2.923.00
2.61
2.70
2.35
2.40
2.09
2.10
1.82
1.80
1.52
1.50
1.23
1.20 0.96
0.90
0.56
0.60
0.30 0.27
0.30
0.00
 
Data Source: Calculated using data from Central Bank of Kenya  
 
 
Figure 22 (b) Liquidity ratio and ratio of gross NPL to gross loans, (%)  
13.0000 51.5
12.9000 51.2
12.8000 50.9
12.7000 50.6
12.6000 50.3
12.5000 50.0
12.4000 49.7
12.3000 49.4
12.2000 49.1
12.1000 48.8
12.0000 48.5
11.9000 48.2
Ratio of Gross NPL/Gross loans Liquidity Ratio
 
Data Source: Calculated using data from Central Bank of Kenya  
 
 
16 
 
Ratio of Gross NPL to Gross Loans (%) Return on Asset (%)
Oct-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Dec-18
Jan-19 Jan-19
Feb-19 Feb-19
Mar-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
Apr-19
May-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19 Jul-19
Sep-19 Aug-19
Oct-19 Sep-19
Nov-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Dec-19
Jan-20
Liquidity Ratio (%)
Figure 23: Banking sector credit   
 35.00  7.60
 30.00  6.50
 25.00  5.40
 20.00  4.30
 15.00  3.20
 10.00  2.10
 5.00  1.00
Pubilc Sector Proportion of Banking sector credit (%)
Manufacturing sector credit proportion of Banking sector credit (%)
Private Sector Credit Growth (%)
 
Data Source: Central Bank of Kenya 
 
 
Figure 24: Monetary policy stance for selected countries in Africa   
 18.00
 17.00
 16.00
 15.00
 14.00
 13.00
 12.00
 11.00
 10.00
 9.00
 8.00
 7.00
 6.00
 5.00
 4.00
Kenya Uganda Tanzania Rwanda
Ghana Nigeria Zambia S. Africa
 
Source: Country Central Banks  
  
17 
 
Public and Manufacturign sector proportion 
of Banking sector credit (%)
Oct-18
Nov-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Dec-18
Feb-19 Jan-19
Mar-19 Feb-19
Apr-19 Mar-19
May-19 Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Dec-19
Jan-20 Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Private Sector Credit Growth (%)
4. Fiscal Performance  
 
Figure 25: Fiscal deficit and county transfers (KSh. Billion)  
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
-500
-600
-700
July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar April May June
Fiscal Deficit 2017/18 County Transfer 2017/18 Fiscal Deficit 2018/19
County Transfer 2018/19 Fiscal Deficit 2019/20 County Transfer 2019/20
 
Data Source: Central Bank of Kenya; Figures for February and March 2020 are provisional 
 
 
Figure 26: Monthly utilization of revenue against target  
  
  
Data Source: Monthly Gazette Notices, The National Treasury and Planning  
 
18 
 
Figure 27: Exchequer allocation to Ministry of Health as a % of total Issues to Ministries, 
Agencies and Departments   
 7.50
 6.50
 5.50
 4.50
 3.50
 2.50
 1.50
 0.50
Recurrent Exchequer Issues as a % of total Issues to MDAs
Development Exchequer Issues as a % of total Issues to MDAs
 
Data Source: Monthly Gazette Notices, The National Treasury and Planning  
 
 
Figure 28: Composition of Government Revenue (KSh Billion)  
 5,000.00
 4,500.00
 4,000.00
 3,500.00
 3,000.00
 2,500.00
 2,000.00
 1,500.00
 1,000.00
 500.00
 -
Oct-Dec 2018 Jan-March 2019 April-June 2019 July-Sept 2019 Oct-Dec 2019 Jan-March 2020
Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Grants Total Revenue
 
Data Source: Calculated using data from Central Bank of Kenya and The National Treasury 
data published on monthly Kenya Gazette Notices; figures for January-March 2020 are 
provisional.  
 
19 
 
Revenue (KSh. Billion) Recurrent & Development Issues to Health Sector 
(%)
Oct-18
1,676.47 
227.01 Nov-18
23.29 
1,926.75 Dec-18
Jan-19
2,723.78 
391.03 Feb-19
38.57 
3,153.38 Mar-19
Apr-19
3,884.79 
587.45 May-19
69.68 
Jun-19
4,541.92 
Jul-19
697.44
59.42 Aug-19
5.72
781.01 Sep-19
Oct-19
1,864.45 
358.37 Nov-19
28.24 
2,251.04 Dec-19
Jan-20
2,989.92 
372.45 Feb-20
37.63 
3,599.29 Mar-20
Figure 29: Growth in tax revenue (%) and quarterly GDP growth (%) 
12.00 11.48
11.30
11.21
11.00
10.14
9.78
10.00 9.54
9.00
8.56
8.16
8.00
7.63 7.14
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
Q4-2017 - Q4-2018 Q1-2018 - Q1-2019 Q2-2018 - Q2-2019 Q3-2018 - Q3-2019 Q4-2018 - Q4-2019
Nominal Quarterly GDP Growth Nominal Tax Revenue Growth
 
Data Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics and Central Bank of Kenya 
 
 
Figure 30: Total debt (KSh. Billion) and proportionate shares of domestic and foreign debt  
6,500.00
5,500.00
4,500.00
3,500.00
2,500.00
1,500.00
500.00
-500.00
Domestic debt Public & Publicly Guaranteed External debt Total Debt
 
Data Source: Calculated using data from Central Bank of Kenya 
 
 
20 
 
KSh. Billions Growth in Tax Revenue and Quarterly GDP (%)
Sep-18 49.37% 50.63%
Dec-18 48.34% 51.66%
Mar-19 49.79% 50.21%
Jun-19 47.96% 52.04%
Sep-19 47.86% 52.14%
Dec-19 48.64% 51.36%
Mar-20 48.89% 51.11%
Figure 31: Composition of government domestic debt by instrument (%)   
100%
90%
80%
70%
60.53 61.34 62.48 63.49 65.81 67.67
60%
50%
40%
30%
20% 37.26 36.30 35.78 33.55 31.20 29.86
10%
0%
Oct-Dec 2018 Jan-March 2019 April-June 2019 July-Sept 2019 Oct-Dec2019 Jan-March 2020
Treasury Bills (excluding Repos) Treasury Bonds CBK Overdraft to Govt Other domestic debt
 
Data Source: Calculated using data from Central Bank of Kenya  
 
 
Figure 32: Composition of government domestic debt by holder (%)  
100%
4.54 4.49 4.47 4.27 4.34 4.29
90%
80% 27.43 27.56 27.94 28.34 28.38 28.59
70%
7.46 7.26 7.06 7.06 6.97 6.30
60%
6.05 6.10 6.19 6.18 6.51 6.33
50%
40%
30%
54.49 54.60 54.33 54.15 53.80 54.49
20%
10%
0%
Oct-Dec 2018 Jan-March 2019 April-June 2019 July-Sept 2019 Oct-Dec 2019 Jan-March 2020
Banking Institutions Insurance Companies Parastatals Pension Funds Other investors
 
Data Source: Calculated using data from Central bank of Kenya  
 
 
 
 
21 
 
Figure 33: Composition of external debt: proportionate shares of bilateral, multilateral, 
commercial bank and export credit  
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
Oct-Dec 2018 Jan-March 2019 April-June 2019 July-Sept 2019 Oct-Dec 2019 Jan-March 2020
Bilateral Multilateral Commercial Banks Export Credit
 
Data Source: Calculated using data from Central bank of Kenya  
 
  
22 
 
% of External Debt
31.92 33.05 34.41
34.17 31.22 34.00
33.89 31.00 34.53
32.72 32.51 34.22
32.76 33.24 33.46
32.65 33.00 33.81
5. Capital Markets  
 
Figure 34: Bond volumes traded (Ksh millions) and FTSE NSE Kenya government bond 
price Index  
99.0 100000
98.5 91200
98.0 82400
97.5 73600
97.0 64800
96.5 56000
96.0 47200
95.5 38400
95.0 29600
94.5 20800
94.0 12000
FTSE NSE Govt Bond Price Index Bond Volumes Traded (KSh. Million)
 
Data Source: Nairobi Securities Exchange; Central Bank of Kenya 
 
 
Figure 35: The 10-year Kenya Eurobond (2024) yield (%)  
10.700
10.200
9.700
9.200
8.700
8.200
7.700
7.200
6.700
6.200
5.700
5.200
4.700
4.200
10-year Eurobond Yield - 2024 (%)
 
Data Source: Central Bank of Kenya 
 
23 
 
Yield (%) FTSE NSE Kenya Government Bond Price Index
05-Oct-18 Oct-18
23-Oct-18
Nov-18
10-Nov-18
28-Nov-18 Dec-18
16-Dec-18
Jan-19
03-Jan-19
21-Jan-19 Feb-19
08-Feb-19
Mar-19
26-Feb-19
16-Mar-19 Apr-19
03-Apr-19
May-19
21-Apr-19
09-May-19 Jun-19
27-May-19
Jul-19
14-Jun-19
02-Jul-19 Aug-19
20-Jul-19
Sep-19
07-Aug-19
25-Aug-19 Oct-19
12-Sep-19
Nov-19
30-Sep-19
18-Oct-19 Dec-19
05-Nov-19
Jan-20
23-Nov-19
11-Dec-19 Feb-20
29-Dec-19
Mar-20
16-Jan-20
03-Feb-20
21-Feb-20
10-Mar-20
Bond Volumes Traded (KSh. Million)
28-Mar-20
Figure 36: Stock market performance  
3400
3240
3080
2920
2760
2600
2440
2280
2120
1960
1800
NSE20 Index Mkt Cap (KSh Bn)
 
Data Source: Nairobi Securities Exchange 
 
 
Figure 37: Stock value turnover ratio (%)  
0.130
0.120
0.110
0.100
0.090
0.080
0.070
0.060
0.050
0.040
0.030
0.020
0.010
0.000
 
Data Source: Nairobi Securities Exchange; Calculated as equity turnover value (Ksh million)/ 
Market capitalization (Ksh million)   
 
24 
 
Stock Turnover Ratio (%)
01-Oct-18
22-Oct-18
01-Oct-18
12-Nov-18
22-Oct-18
03-Dec-18
12-Nov-18
24-Dec-18
03-Dec-18
24-Dec-18 14-Jan-19
14-Jan-19 04-Feb-19
04-Feb-19 25-Feb-19
25-Feb-19 18-Mar-19
18-Mar-19 08-Apr-19
08-Apr-19 29-Apr-19
29-Apr-19 20-May-19
20-May-19 10-Jun-19
10-Jun-19 01-Jul-19
01-Jul-19 22-Jul-19
22-Jul-19
12-Aug-19
12-Aug-19
02-Sep-19
02-Sep-19
23-Sep-19
23-Sep-19
14-Oct-19
14-Oct-19
04-Nov-19
04-Nov-19
25-Nov-19
25-Nov-19
16-Dec-19
16-Dec-19
06-Jan-20 06-Jan-20
27-Jan-20 27-Jan-20
17-Feb-20 17-Feb-20
09-Mar-20 09-Mar-20
30-Mar-20 30-Mar-20
Figure 38: Foreign trading in the stock market  
23,500 160
21,500 144
19,500 128
17,500 112
15,500 96
13,500 80
11,500 64
9,500 48
7,500 32
5,500 16
3,500 0
Average Foreign Participation to Equity Turnover (%) Foreign Purchases (FP)
Foreign Sales (FS) Equity Market Turnover (ET)
 
Data Source: Central Bank of Kenya; AIB Capital Ltd (http://www.aibcapital.com/research).  
 
 
Figure 39: Stock market performance of selected advanced and emerging markets      
 
Figure 39(a): USA stock markets  
14,000 29,000
13,000 28,000
12,000 27,000
11,000 26,000
10,000 25,000
9,000 24,000
8,000 23,000
7,000 22,000
6,000 21,000
NYSE Composite Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)
 
Data source: Country Stock Exchanges; http://www.investing.com  
25 
 
NYSE Composite & Nasda 100 Foreign Purchases & Sales, Equity Turnover (KSh. Million)
Oct-18 Oct-18
Nov-18 Nov-18
Dec-18 Dec-18
Jan-19 Jan-19
Feb-19 Feb-19
Mar-19 Mar-19
Apr-19
Apr-19
May-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Jan-20
Feb-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Mar-20
Dow Jones Industrial Average Average Foreign Participation to Equity Turnover (%)
 
Figure 39(b): European stock markets  
8,000 1,210
7,500 1,174
7,000 1,138
1,102
6,500
1,066
6,000
1,030
5,500
994
5,000
958
4,500 922
4,000 886
3,500 850
London Stock Exchange Group PLC (LSE) EuroNext 100 (N100)
 
Data source: Country Stock Exchanges; http://www.investing.com  
 
 
Figure 39(c): Asian stock markets  
3,200 24,000
3,000 23,460
2,800 22,920
2,600 22,380
2,400 21,840
2,200 21,300
2,000 20,760
1,800 20,220
1,600 19,680
1,400 19,140
1,200 18,600
Shanghai Composite (SSEC) SZSE Composite Index (SZSC) Nikkei 225 (N225)
 
Data source: Country Stock Exchanges; http://www.investing.com  
 
26 
 
SSCE & SZSC London Stock Exchange
Oct-18 Oct-18
Nov-18 Nov-18
Dec-18 Dec-18
Jan-19 Jan-19
Feb-19 Feb-19
Mar-19 Mar-19
Apr-19 Apr-19
May-19 May-19
Jun-19 Jun-19
Jul-19 Jul-19
Aug-19 Aug-19
Sep-19 Sep-19
Oct-19 Oct-19
Nov-19 Nov-19
Dec-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Jan-20
Feb-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Mar-20
Nikkei 225 EuroNext 100
Figure 39(d): African stock markets  
3,700 1,860
3,500 1,742
3,300 1,624
3,100 1,507
2,900 1,389
2,700 1,271
2,500 1,153
2,300 1,036
2,100 918
1,900 800
FTSE South Africa (FTWIZAFL) NSE20 (Kenya) EGX100 (Egypt) NGSE30 (Nigeria)
 
Data source: Country Stock Exchanges; http://www.investing.com  
 
 
  
27 
 
FTWIZAFL & NSE20
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
EGX100 & NGSE30
6. Risk-related Factors  
 
Figure 40: Vulnerability of Sub-Saharan Africa countries to COVID-19 shock in 2020     
 
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, April 2020 
 
28 
 
 
Figure 41: Kenya purchasing managers’ index  
 
Data Source: Stanbic Bank (https://www.stanbicbank.co.ke); IHS-Markit (https://ihsmarkit.com)   
Key: 50.0 = Neutral; Above 50.0 = Expansion; Below 50.0 = Contraction 
 
 
Figure 42: Mean annual and seasonal rainfall   
 1,200.0
 1,100.0
 1,000.0
 900.0
 800.0
 700.0
 600.0
 500.0
 400.0
 300.0
 200.0
 100.0
 -
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
March-May June-August October-December Annual
 
Data Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics; Kenya Meteorological Department; 
https://www.worldweatheronline.com/         
 
29 
 
Rainfall in Milimeters
Figure 43: Mean monthly temperature (Degrees Celsius)    
26.50
26.00
25.50
25.00
24.50
24.00
23.50
23.00
22.50
22.00
21.50
21.00
20.50
20.00
2018 2019 2020
 
Data Source: Kenya Meteorological Department; https://www.worldweatheronline.com/     
 
 
 
30 
 
Mean Monthly Temperature 
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December