TURKANA COUNTY GOVERNMENT FINANCE AND ECONOMIC PLANNING COUNTY BUDGET REVIEW AND OUTLOOK PAPER 2023 September 2023 © Turkana County Budget Review and Outlook Paper (CBROP) 2023 To obtain copies of the document, please contact: Directorate of Budget Economic Planning County Treasury P.O. Box 11-30500 LODWAR, KENYA The document is also available online at: www.turkana.go.ke FOREWORD This is the Turkana County Budget Review and Outlook Paper (CBROP) 2023. This document has been prepared in accordance with the Public Finance Management (PFM) Act, 2012 and the PFM (County Government) Regulations, 2015. It reviews the county’s fiscal performance in the Financial Year (FY) 2022/2023 against the projections in the FY 2022/2023 approved budget estimates. The paper highlights the performance of revenue and entity spending for the period under review. It has also highlighted the recent economic and financial forecast that will help in the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) projections. The projected revenue for the period under review stood at KES. 18,409,129,261.19 comprising: equitable share KES. 12,609,305,994; conditional grants KES 570,438,213; unspent balance brought forward from previous year amounted to KES. 4,751,383,630; unspent conditional grants balances at the Special Purpose Accounts (SPAs) KES. 280,001,422 and lastly Own Source Revenue (OSR) was projected at KES. 198,000,000. The total County expenditure for FY 2022/2023 was KES. 15,357,504,482 against a revised budget estimates of KES. 18,409,129,261 representing 83 per cent overall burn rate. Recurrent expenditure amounted to KES. 12,190,032,536 representing 97 per cent absorption rate of the revised recurrent expenditure budget estimates of KES. 12,528,851,157. Development expenditure amounted to KES. 3,167,471,947 or 54 per cent of the revised development expenditure budget estimate of KES. 5,880,278,104. During the year under review inefficiencies in the operational processes including delays in the procurement processes, delayed and late disbursement of funds, governance transitional challenges and drought experienced in the year negatively affected operations especially the development expenditure performance. This CBROP sets out the basis and the threshold for the preparation of FY 2024/2025 Budget Estimates. The projections set for the MTEF 2024/25 – 2025/26 will guide in the preparation of the Sector Working Group (SWG) reports. Government Ministries, Departments and Entities are therefore directed to adhere to the budget cycle as espoused in the Turkana County Budget Circular 2023 issued in August 2023. DR. MICHAEL EREGAE CEC MEMBER – FINANCE AND ECONOMIC PLANNING TURKANA COUNTY GOVERNMENT. i ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The preparation of CBROP 2023 has adhered to the provisions of The PFM Act, 2012 and the PFM (County Government) Regulations, 2015. The CBROP shows in details the actual fiscal performance of FY 2022/2023 against the budget estimates for the year under review. It further shows how the performance has affected the fiscal responsibilities principles and the financial objectives as set out in the PFM Act, 2012 as well as giving information on adjustments made to projections outlined in the County Fiscal Strategy Paper (CFSP) 2022. The preparation of CBROP 2023 is a collaborative synergy of a number of county entities including the Directorates of Revenue, Accounting Services, Human Resource Management, Economic Planning, and the Turkana County Assembly. These entities provided valuable data for analysis and information found in this paper. Their contributions are hereby immensely acknowledged. Finally, specific acknowledgement goes to the Directorate of Budget led by the Director Mr. Nicholas Mayo for the invaluable analysis and interpretation of data and the commitment to ensure timely consolidation of information that produced this document. JOHN KORIKEL CHIEF OFFICER – ECONOMIC PLANNING COUNTY GOVERNMENT OF TURKANA ii Table of Contents FOREWORD .............................................................................................................................. i ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ......................................................................................................... ii ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS .................................................................................. v GLOSSARY OF TERMS ......................................................................................................... vi 1.0 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................... 1 2.0 REVIEW OF FISCAL PERFORMANCE FOR FY 2022/2023 ......................................... 2 2.1 NATIONAL REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE OUTLOOK ....................................... 2 2.1.1 Revenue Performance ............................................................................................... 2 2.1.2 Expenditure Performance. ......................................................................................... 3 2.2 COUNTY REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE OUTLOOK ........................................... 5 2.2.1 RESOURCE ENVELOPE ............................................................................................ 5 2.2.1.1 Actual Revenue Performance ................................................................................ 7 2.2.1.2 Actual Conditional Grants Receipts ....................................................................... 8 2.2.2.0 Own Source Revenue ............................................................................................. 9 2.2.2.2 Own Source Revenue Collections by Quarter ..................................................... 11 2.2.2.3 Own Source Revenue Collections by Sub-County .............................................. 11 2.2.2.4 Own Source Revenue Collections by Entity. ....................................................... 12 2.2.2.5 Own Source Revenue Trend over the years. ........................................................ 12 2.2.3 EXPENDITURE PERFORMANCE .......................................................................... 13 2.2.3.1 Fiscal Responsibilities Principles ........................................................................ 13 2.2.3.2 County Revenue Fund (CRF) Account Releases ................................................. 14 2.2.3.3 Expenditure by Category. .................................................................................... 15 2.2.3.4 Expenditure by Entity. ......................................................................................... 16 2.2.3.5 Recurrent Expenditure. ........................................................................................ 17 2.2.3.6 Compensation to Employees ................................................................................ 18 2.2.3.7 Development Expenditure ................................................................................... 19 2.2.3.9 Quarterly Expenditure .......................................................................................... 21 3.0 RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND OUTLOOK. ........................................ 23 3.1 World Economic Outlook .............................................................................................. 23 3.2 Kenya’s Economic Performance and Outlook ............................................................... 23 Economic Performance .................................................................................................... 23 Sectoral GDP Performance .............................................................................................. 24 Inflation ............................................................................................................................ 25 Interest Rates .................................................................................................................... 26 Performance in Capital Markets ...................................................................................... 26 iii Economic Outlook ........................................................................................................... 27 3.5 Turkana County Economy ............................................................................................. 28 4.0 RESOURCE ALLOCATION FRAMEWORK ................................................................. 30 4.1 Implementation of FY 2023/2024 Budget ..................................................................... 30 4.2 FY 2023/2024 Budget Framework ................................................................................ 30 4.3 Medium Term Plan Fiscal Projections and Expenditure Framework ............................ 31 5.0 RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS ............................................................ 32 5.1 Observations .................................................................................................................. 32 5.2 Recommendations .......................................................................................................... 32 5.3 Conclusions .................................................................................................................... 33 ANNEXES ............................................................................................................................... 34 ANNEX I: REVISED FY 2022/2023 BUDGET ESTIMATES .......................................... 34 ANNEX II: COMPREHENSIVE FY 2022/2023 EXPENDITURE ................................... 35 ANNEX III: EXPENDITURE BY CATEGORY, FY 2022/2023 ...................................... 36 ANNEX IV: CFSP 2023 CEILINGS ................................................................................... 37 ANNEX V: OWN SOURCE REVENUE FY 2022/2023 ................................................... 38 ANNEX VI: MEDIUM TERM EXPENDITURE FRAMEWORK PROJECTIONS ......... 39 iv ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS BPS Budget Policy Statement CBROP County Budget Review and Outlook Paper CFSP County Fiscal Strategy Paper CG County Government CIDP County Integrated Development Plan COVID-19 Corona Virus Disease 2019 CRF County Revenue Fund FY Fiscal Year /Financial Year MTEF Medium Term Expenditure Framework MoU Memorandum of Understanding PFM Public Finance Management Act OSR Own Source Revenue SWGs Sector Working Groups v GLOSSARY OF TERMS Appropriation in Aid- These are receipts which may be retained by a department to offset expenditure instead of being paid into the exchequer account of the central fund Budget Statement- It sets out the Administrations priority programs to be implemented in the Medium Term Development under a devolved system of government County Fiscal Strategy Paper- This is an overview of how a county plans to raise and spend money for the next year while considering a 2-3 year perspective. County Integrated Development Plan- This is a super plan for the county that gives an overall framework for development. It aims to coordinate the work of local and other spheres of government in a coherent plan to improve the quality of life for all the people living in an area. The plan should look at economic and social development for the area as a whole. Gross Domestic Product - This is the aggregate measure of production equal to the sum of the gross value-added of all resident institutional units engaged in all production (plus any taxes, and minus any subsidies) on products not included in the value of their output. Medium Term Expenditure Framework-It is an integrated approach to policy, planning and budgeting by developing countries that estimate expenditures of three years from the present. Real GDP- This is a macroeconomic measure of the value of economic output adjusted for price changes i.e. inflation or deflation. Sector Working Groups- These are forums to discuss and build consensus about development priorities and improve sectoral aid coordination and effectiveness. vi Legal Basis for the Publication of the County Budget Review and Outlook Paper The County Budget Review and Outlook Paper has been prepared in accordance with Section 118 of the Public Finance Management Act, 2012. The law states that: 1) The County Treasury shall prepare and submit to County Executive Committee for approval, by 30th September in each financial year, a County Budget Review and Outlook Paper which shall include: a. Actual fiscal performance in the previous financial year compared to the budget appropriation for that year; b. Updated economic and financial forecasts with sufficient information to show changes from the forecasts in the most recent County Fiscal Strategy Paper. c. Information on how actual financial performance for the previous financial year may have affected compliance with the fiscal responsibility principles or the financial objectives in the latest County Fiscal Strategy Paper; and d. The reasons for any deviation from the financial objectives in the County Fiscal Strategy Paper together with proposals to address the deviation and the time estimated for doing so. 2) The County Executive Committee shall consider the County Budget Review and Outlook Paper with a view of approving it, with or without amendments, within fourteen days after its submission 3) Not later than seven days after the County Budget Review and Outlook Paper (CBROP) has been approved by the County Executive Committee, the County Treasury shall: a. Submit the paper to the Budget Committee of the County Assembly to be laid before County Assembly; and b. Publish and publicize the paper not later than fifteen days after laying the Paper before the Assembly. vii Fiscal Responsibility Principles in the Public Financial Management Law In line with the Constitution of Kenya 2010, the Public Finance Management (PFM) Act, 201 2, sets out the fiscal responsibility principles to ensure prudency and transparency in the management of public resources. The PFM law (Section 107) states that: 1. The County government’s recurrent expenditure shall not exceed the county go vernment’s total revenue. 2. O ver the medium term a minimum of thirty percent of the County government’s bu dget shall be allocated to the development expenditure. 3. The County government’s expenditure on wages and benefits for public officers shall no t exceed a percentage of the County government’s total revenue as prescribed by the Co unty Executive Member Finance regulations and approved by the County Assembly. 4. Over the medium term, the County government’s borrowings shall be used only for the pu rpose of financing development expenditure and not for recurrent expenditure. 5. T he County debt shall be maintained at a sustainable level as approved by the County As sembly 6. F iscal risks shall be managed prudently. 7. A reasonable degree of predictability with respect to the level of tax rates and tax bases shall be maintained, taking into account any tax reforms that may be made in the future. viii 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Objective of the 2023 Turkana County Budget Review and Outlook Paper The 2023 County Budget Review and Outlook Paper (CBROP) gives an analysis of fiscal performance (revenue and expenditure) of the FY 2022/2023 and how this performance affects fiscal responsibility principles as spelled out in the County Fiscal Strategy Paper (CFSP) 2022. The paper further highlights on the deviation from financial objectives in CFSP 2022, recent economic development, financial projections that will help in the drafting of Budget Proposals for the FY 2024/25 and Annual Development Plan (ADP) 2024/2025. This County Budget Review and Outlook Paper (CBROP) 2023 is prepared in accordance to Section 118 of the PFM Act, 2012 and the County Governments Regulations 2015. This CBROP proposes that the sector programs and ceilings will be aligned to the third generation of County Integrated Development Plan (2023 – 2027), the Governor’s 9 Point Agenda and Bottom Economic Transformation Agenda (BETA) to ensure effective use of resource and realization of value for money to the benefit of citizenry. This paper is organized into five chapters. Chapter I gives the objective of the paper. Chapter II offers a review of fiscal performance for the FY 2022/2023 and how this performance impacted fiscal objectives and responsibility principles with three main sub division namely overview, fiscal performance and implications. Chapter III highlights recent economic developments and macroeconomic outlook with three sub sets namely: Recent Economic development, Macroeconomic outlook and County Specific Outlook in the context of Turkana. Chapter IV details the challenges in the execution of the budget. It also has information on resource allocation framework and the adjustment to the previous year’s budget and Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF). Lastly, Chapter V concludes the paper. 1 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023 2.0 REVIEW OF FISCAL PERFORMANCE FOR FY 2022/2023 2.1 NATIONAL REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE OUTLOOK 2.1.1 Revenue Performance The national government and external grants amounted to KES. 2,383.6 Billion being revenue realized from Ordinary Revenue, Appropriation in Aid and External Grants at KES. 2,041.1 Billion, KES. 319.4 Billion and KES. 23.1 Billion in that order. Collection from the broad tax category did not meet the set target, excise duty had highest deviation of KES. 29.5 Billion, followed VAT local by KES. 24.4 Billion and other income tax at KES. 24.3 Billion. However, investment revenue, taxes on international trade and traffic revenue surpassed the target by KES. 5.8 Billion, KES. 1.1 billion and 0.8 Billion respectively. External grants missed the target by KES. 18.6 Billion. There was shortfall of KES. 136.7 Billion in the revenue realized by the national government. Table 1: Government Revenue and External Grants, FY 2022/2023 Source: BROP 2023 2 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023 2.1.2 Expenditure Performance. The total expenditure and net lending in FY 2022/2023 amounted to KES. 3,221 billion against a revised target of KES. 3,366.6 billion. This expenditure performance translates to a deviation of KES 145.5 Billion from the revised target. In comparison with expenditure in FY 2021/2022, expenditure in the period under review registered a growth of 6.4%. Table 2: National Expenditure, FY 2022/2023 Source: BROP 2023 Recurrent expenditure was at KES. 2,250.6 Billion Against the revised target of KES. 2,300.5 Billion Translating to a deviation of KES. 49.9 Billion. A major deviation of KES 24.3 Billion was registered in Pensions and Consolidated Funds Services. Development expenditure amounted to KES. 493.6 Billion against a revised target of KES. 560.5 Billion with a deviation of KES 66.9 Billion mainly from low spending of net development project and county governments by KES 44.7 Billion and KES 20.6 Billion respectively. 3 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023 County Governments Source of Revenue The main sources of funding to county governments in the year under review was equitable share with budgetary allocation of KES 370 Billion, translating 82% of the total county governments’ budget followed by OSR budgeted of KES 57.4 Billion which is 13% and lastly additional allocation of KES 22.5 Billion at 5%. The actual total disbursements to counties was KES 453.6 billion. Table 3: Sources of Revenue for County Governments Source: BROP 2023 4 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023 2.2 COUNTY REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE OUTLOOK 2.2.1 RESOURCE ENVELOPE Nationally, the county governments’ revenue targets were estimated to be at KES. 449.9 Billion for the FY 2022/2023. Equitable share amounted to KES. 370 billion which was 82.2% per cent of the total revenue estimates. Additional allocations and Own Source Revenue were estimated at KES. 22.5 billion and KES. 57.4 billion respectively. Table 3: County Governments’ sources of revenue, FY 2022/2023 Revenue Source County Governments Revenue Budgeted % of FY 2022/23 (billions) Total revenue Equitable Share 370 82.2% Additional Allocations 22.5 5.0% OSR 57.4 12.8% Total 449.9 100.0% Source: The National Treasury For the case of Turkana County, projected revised revenue for the period under review (FY 2022/2023) stood at KES 18,409,129,261.19. Comprising: Equitable Share of KES 12,609,305,994; conditional grants of KES 570,438,213; unspent balance brought forward from previous year amounted to KES 4,751,383,630; unspent balances at Special Purpose Accounts was KES 280,001,422; and lastly Own source revenue was projected at KES 198,000,000. 5 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023 Table 3: Turkana County Government FY 2022/2023 Revenue Estimates REVENUE STREAM REVENUE CHANGE IN REVISED REVENUE ESTIMATES REVENUE FY 2022/23 FY 2022/23 1. National Revenue a) Equitable share 12,609,305,994.00 12,609,305,994.00 b) Compensation for User Fees Foregone - c) Roads Maintenance Levy Fund - c) Village Polytechnics - f) Loans and Grants - v) National Agricultural and Rural 155,480,180.00 Inclusive Growth Project (NARIGP) 155,480,180.00 vi) Agricultural Sector Development 34,606,056.00 Support Programme (ASDSP) II 34,606,056.00 vii) Drought Resilience Programme 220,000,000.00 in Northern Kenya (DRPNK) 220,000,000.00 viii) Emergency Locust Response 102,108,500.00 Project (ELRP) 102,108,500.00 ix) DANIDA Grant - Primary Health 33,903,563.00 Care in Devolved Context 33,903,563.00 vi) Financing Locally Led Climate 22,000,000.00 Action (FLLoCA) Programme 22,000,000.00 vii) Kenya Urban Support 2,339,914.88 Programme 2,339,914.88 g) Balance Carried Forward (FY 2020/2021) i) Exchequer 4,696,209,337.13 4,696,209,337.13 ii) NARIGP 55,174,293.68 55,174,293.68 h) Balances at Special Purpose Accounts i) Transforming Health Systems for 75,130,389.75 Universal Care Project (WB) 75,130,389.75 ii) Kenya Devolution Support 127,166,723.00 Programme 127,166,723.00 iii) Kenya Urban Support Programme 77,704,309.75 77,704,309.75 2. Own Revenue Sources - l) Projected Revenue From Local Sources 198,000,000.00 198,000,000.00 - TOTAL REVENUE 12,807,305,994.00 5,601,823,267.19 18,409,129,261.19 Source: The County Treasury 6 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023 2.2.1.1 Actual Revenue Performance Table 4: Actual Revenue Performance, FY 2022/2023 REVISED REVENUE STREAM REVENUE Actual Revenue FY Variance Revenue PROJECTIONS 2022/23 (Kshs.) Performance FY 2022/23 1. National Revenue a) Equitable share 12,609,305,994.00 12,609,305,994.00 - 100.00% f) Loans and Grants - v) National Agricultural and Rural Inclusive Growth 155,480,180.00 155,480,180.00 - 100.00% Project (NARIGP) vi) Agricultural Sector Development Support 34,606,056.00 34,606,056.00 0.00 100.00% Programme (ASDSP) II vii) Drought Resilience Programme in northern Kenya 220,000,000.00 126,890,977.50 -93,109,022.50 57.68% (DRPNK) viii) Emergency Locust Response Project (ELRP) 102,108,500.00 99,635,912.85 -2,472,587.15 97.58% ix) DANIDA Grant - Primary Health Care in Devolved 33,903,563.00 -33,903,563.00 0.00% Context vi) Financing Locally Led Climate Action (FLLoCA) 22,000,000.00 22,000,000.00 - 100.00% Programme vii) Kenya Urban Support Programme 2,339,914.88 2,339,914.88 - 100.00% - g) Balance Carried Forward (FY 2020/2021) i) Exchequer 4,696,209,337.13 4,696,209,337.13 ii) NARIGP 55,174,293.68 55,174,293.68 h) Balances at Special Purpose Accounts i) Transforming Health Systems for Universal Care Project 75,130,389.75 75,130,389.75 (WB) ii) Kenya Devolution Support Programme 127,166,723.00 127,166,723.00 iii) Kenya Urban Support Programme 77,704,309.75 77,704,309.75 2. Own Revenue Sources - l) Projected Revenue From Local Sources 198,000,000.00 190,501,860.95 -7,498,139.05 96.21% - TOTAL REVENUE 18,409,129,261.19 18,272,145,949.49 -136,983,311.70 99.26% Source: The County Treasury. The unrealized revenue was KES. 136,983,949.49 representing 0.74 percent. Unrealized conditional grants amounted to KES. 129,485,172.65 and unrealized Own Source Revenue amounted KES. 7,498,139. It is imperative to note that in the history of devotion the entire equitable share for the year was received within the year though the June disbursement was received late resulting into late payments of suppliers and contractors. 7 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023 2.2.1.2 Actual Conditional Grants Receipts During the period under review, the county received KES. 440,953,041.23 as conditional grants proceeds from development partners as shown Table 5 below. Notably the DANIDA grant commitment for the Primary Health Care wasn’t received. Table 5: Conditional Grants Actual Revenue Performance REVISED Actual REVENUE STREAM REVENUE PROJECTIONS FY Revenue FY Variance (Kshs.) Revenue Performance 2022/23 2022/23 Loans and Grants - i) National Agricultural and Rural Inclusive 155,480,180.00 155,480,180.00 - 100.00% Growth Project (NARIGP) ii) Agricultural Sector Development Support 34,606,056.00 34,606,056.00 0.00 100.00% Programme (ASDSP) II iii) Drought Resilience Programme in northern 220,000,000.00 126,890,977.50 -93,109,022.50 57.68% Kenya (DRPNK) iv) Emergency Locust Response Project 102,108,500.00 99,635,912.85 -2,472,587.15 97.58% (ELRP) v) DANIDA Grant - Primary Health Care in 33,903,563.00 -33,903,563.00 0.00% Devolved Context vi) Financing Locally Led Climate Action 22,000,000.00 22,000,000.00 - 100.00% (FLLoCA) Programme vii) Kenya Urban Support Programme 2,339,914.88 2,339,914.88 - 100.00% 570,438,213.88 440,953,041.23 -129,485,172.65 77.30% Source: The County Treasury. 8 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023 2.2.2.0 Own Source Revenue The actual Own Source Revenue collected (see the table below) during this period under review was KES. 190,501,861. The highest revenue was collected from CESS at KES 72,790,386, followed by Single Business Permit at KES. 46,860,855 and the lowest stream was collected from the Hire of the County Assets stream at KES. 1,000. No revenue was realized from the sale of Liquor Licenses. Table 8: Own Source Revenue Collections by Streams, FY 2022/2023 REVENUE STREAM Amount Collected in Kshs. % SINGLE BUSINESS PERMIT(Application fee, renewal, penalties/interest, 46,860,855 24.6% Arrears) ROYALTY-CESS( Murram, hardcore sand, ballast, Exploitation) 12,526,221 6.6% CESS(Agricultural, Transport ,Hide & skin, charcoal cess, firewood, miraa cess, scrap metal,Fish) 72,790,386 38.2% MARKET FEE(Barter, entry fee/offloading, hawking,) 8,247,840 4.3% SLAUGHTER/AUCTION FEE(Small and Big animals) 9,177,580 4.8% ADVERTISEMENT(Branding, Billboard, Sign post, sign boards, 2.7% roadshows, banners, posters, tent, street pole/clock advertising, Neon, 5,098,883 others) PARKING FEE (Street parking,Monthly stickers,motorbike 1.6% fees,registration fees,reserved parking,bus park fees and others) 2,961,510 TRANSPORT OPERATION FEE -Entry/Exit (Taxi, Bodaboda, Matatu, Canter, Lorry, and buses) 249,660 0.1% LIQUOR LICENCES(Liquor License and Application Fee ) - 0.0% LAND SURVEY/APPLICATION/ BUILDING APPROVAL(Land 3.8% penalties and interest/arrears) 7,212,740 PROPERTY RENT/KIOSKS/STALLS(County Housing,Plot Rent,Tenants 1.7% Agreement,Transfer of property) 3,158,000 PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICES(Inspection of building/institutions,hygiene 1.2% licence,vaccination,medical examination,sanitation inspection for 2,214,970 schools,permits,fumigation) ADMINISTRATION CONTROL FEES AND CHARGES(Fire Services,Betting Levy,others) 22,000 0.0% OTHER FEES PENALTIES AND FORFEITURES-Impounding 2.1% fees,Towing Fees and Others 3,912,390 PARK FEES-Lodge Tarriffs and Levis,Park Entry fees,filming and photography fees,camping fees,balloon landing fees,others 209,000 0.1% CONSERVANCY ADMINISTRATION-Refuse 0.1% disposal,Dumpsite,Sewerage,Sale of seedlings,public cemetery,disposal of 262,280 carcases,noise control,others CORPORATES 10,500,101 5.5% HIRE OF COUNTY ASSETS-Agricultural Mechanisms Services,Hire of 0.0% Machines and Equipments 1,000 PHYSICAL PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT(Sale of county planning 1.3% documents,change of user,building plans approval,signposts,occupational 2,451,800 permits,enforcement/demolition,,hoarding fees) MISCELLENOUS RECIEPTS-Dividends, Interest, Commission, 20,000 0.0% DONATIONS AND GRANTS NOT RECEIVED THROUGH CRF 0.0% (Donations and Grants Based on Source. - SINGLE BUSINESS PERMIT - Refugees 2,553,125 1.3% WEIGHTS AND MEASURES 71,520 0.0% T0TAL 190,501,861 100.0% Source: The County Treasury Directorate of Revenue. 9 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023 2.2.2.1 Own Source Revenue Collections by Month The highest OSR was collected in the month of January at KES. 24,727,861.35. This could be attributable to mass renewal of business permits in January. The months of August, September and December 2022 realized the lowest receipts at KES. 10,132,572.15, KES. 11,082,897.50 and KES 11,566,478.40 respectively Table 9: Monthly Own Source Revenue Collections, FY 2022/2023 Month Amount Collected in Kshs. Cumulative Collections Jul 12,593,805.80 12,593,805.80 Aug 10,132,572.15 22,726,377.95 Sep 11,082,897.50 33,809,275.45 Oct 12,965,723.65 46,774,999.10 Nov 12,762,766.65 59,537,765.75 Dec 11,566,478.40 71,104,244.15 Jan 24,727,861.35 95,832,105.50 Feb 20,870,264.00 116,702,369.50 Mar 20,348,909.00 137,051,278.50 Apr 18,209,985.00 155,261,263.50 May 21,033,328.00 176,294,591.50 Jun 14,207,269.45 190,501,860.95 Total Collections for FY 2022/2023 190,501,860.95 Source: The County Treasury, Directorate of Revenue. Figure I: Analysis of Own Source Revenue Collections by Month, FY 2022/2023 Revenue Collected By Month 30,000,000.00 25,000,000.00 20,000,000.00 15,000,000.00 10,000,000.00 5,000,000.00 0.00 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Month of the FY 2022/2023 Source: Analysis by the County Treasury, Directorate of Budget Apparently from the table above, the first and second quarters are periods of low collection of revenue reflecting the periods of low public expenditures attributable to the beginning of the 10 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023 Amount in Kshs. fiscal year and preparation of the supplementary budget with less or limited spending.Thereafter own source revenue increase significantly marking increased public spending. 2.2.2.2 Own Source Revenue Collections by Quarter There is revenue decline in the first two quarters and later improved in the last two quarters. Analysis of revenue shows that the third quarter received the highest amount of KES. 65,947,034 while the first quarter received the lowest amount of KES. 33,809,275. As highlighted before, high collections in the third quarter were as a result of renewal of single business permits and increased collections raised Royalty. Table 10: Quarterly Own Source Revenue Collections, FY 2022/2023 Quarter Amount 1st Quarter 33,809,275 2nd Quarter 37,294,969 3rd Quarter 65,947,034 4th Quarter 53,450,582 TOTAL 190,501,861 Source: The County Treasury, Directorate of Revenue 2.2.2.3 Own Source Revenue Collections by Sub-County Quarterly sub-County analysis is as presented in Table 11 below. Turkana Central Sub-County, being the headquarters of the County with most business activities concentrated therein had the highest collections of KES. 95,322,160, Turkana South being the gateway into and out of Turkana was second with KES 58,255,185 collections while Kibish being a far flung sub county had the lowest collection at KES. 139,600. Table 11: Own Source Revenue Collections by Sub-County, FY 2022/2023 SUB-COUNTY 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH QUARTER QUARTER QUARTER QUARTER TOTAL TURKANA WEST 3,714,035.00 4,649,230.00 9,902,236.00 6,425,909.00 24,691,410.00 TURKANA NORTH 877,965.00 1,445,380.00 2,255,205.00 2,727,910.00 7,306,460.00 LOIMA 688,740.00 762,885.00 716,440.00 1,513,259.00 3,681,324.00 TURKANA CENTRAL 15,872,655.45 15,524,818.70 37,717,450.35 26,207,236.45 95,322,160.95 TURKANA EAST 145,950.00 63,215.00 216,950.00 679,603.00 1,105,718.00 TURKANA SOUTH 12,509,930.00 14,840,840.00 15,091,350.00 15,813,065.00 58,255,185.00 KIBISH - 8,600.00 47,400.00 83,600.00 139,600.00 TOTAL 33,809,275.45 37,294,968.70 65,947,031.35 53,450,582.45 190,501,857.95 Source: The County Treasury, Directorate of Revenue. 11 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023 2.2.2.4 Own Source Revenue Collections by Entity. The table below gives analysis of entities’ OSR collections. The county department of Infrastructure, Transport and Public Works had the highest collection at KES. 73,040,046 attributable to increased construction activities; followed by Trade, Gender and Youth Affairs at KES 57,755,340 mainly being collections from trading licenses while Tourism, Culture, Energy, Environment and Natural Resources had the lowest collection at KES. 471,280 being collections from limited mining activities. Table 12: Own Source Revenue Collections by Entity, FY 2022/2023 County Entity Amount in Kshs. Finance & Economic Planning 14,433,490.85 Health Services & Sanitation 2,214,970.00 Lands, Housing & UAM 33,409,153.65 Agriculture, Pastoral Economy and Fisheries 9,177,580.00 Infrastructure, Transport and Public Works 73,040,046.00 Trade, Gender and Youth Affairs 57,755,340.45 Tourism, Culture, Energy, Environment and Natural Resources 471,280.00 Total 190,501,860.95 Source: The County Treasury, Directorate of Revenue. 2.2.2.5 Own Source Revenue Trend over the years. Figure III below demonstrates the yearly trend analysis in revenue collections over a decade since the advent of devolution. Although there is a slight drop of revenue in this year under review, it is worthwhile to note that generally we have had an upward revenue collection trajectory though with a dip in the FY 2017/2018,this being an election year. Figure III: Analysis of Own Source Revenue Collections by Month, FY 2022/2023 OSR TREND 250,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 150,000,000.00 100,000,000.00 50,000,000.00 - FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 Financial Years Source: Analysis by Directorate of Budget, Turkana County. 12 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023 Amount of KES 2.2.3 EXPENDITURE PERFORMANCE 2.2.3.1 Fiscal Responsibilities Principles Legal framework sets a threshold of 30% and 70% of county revenue to development and recurrent respectively. From a total of KES 18,409,129,261 realized, KES12, 528,851,157 was allocated to cater for recurrent and KES 5,880,278,104 to development expenditures as demonstrated in Table 13 below: Table 13: Revised Budget Estimates, FY 2022/2023 VOTE RECURRENT BUDGET DEVELOPMENT BUDGET TOTAL BUDGET Governance 525,971,265 243,274,571 769,245,836 Office of the 56,151,658 - 56,151,658 Deputy Governor County Attorney 155,703,316 - 155,703,316 Finance and 2,499,798,386 835,648,373 3,335,446,760 Economic Planning Water Services, 138,090,716 781,015,253 919,105,969 Environment and Mineral Resources Health & Sanitation 1,105,860,423 504,003,789 1,609,864,212 Services Trade, Gender and 153,690,803 435,263,265 588,954,068 Youth Affairs Education, Sports 687,288,413 490,696,997 1,177,985,410 and Social Protection Public Service, 5,445,896,104 35,566,848 5,481,462,953 Administration. & Disaster Management Infrastructure 80,150,477 556,091,509 636,241,986 Transport & Public Works Agriculture, 151,408,874 1,210,168,975 1,361,577,849 Pastoral Economy & Fisheries Tourism, Culture 130,820,287 271,090,669 401,910,956 and Natural Resources Lands, Energy, 106,727,508 118,037,945 224,765,453 Housing & Urban Areas Mgt. County Assembly 1,024,468,006 225,000,000 1,249,468,006 County Public 158,527,898 2,000,000 160,527,898 Service Board Lodwar 108,297,022 172,419,910 280,716,932 Municipality TOTAL 12,528,851,157 5,880,278,104 18,409,129,261 EXPENDITURE Source: Analysis by County Treasury, Directorate of Budget. 13 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023 2.2.3.2 County Revenue Fund (CRF) Account Releases The total CRF Account releases amounted to KES. 15,736,250,628 that were transferred to various accounts of the spending entities. The County Executive received a total of KES. 14,375,020,555, the County Assembly received KES. 1,006,962,733 while KES. 354,267,340 were released to Special Purpose accounts for Conditional Grants. Table 14: County Revenue Fund Account Releases, FY 2022/2023 Period Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Total (2022/2023) (Kshs.) (Kshs.) (Kshs.) (Kshs.) (Kshs.) County Executive -Rec 727,450,650 3,316,400,248 3,509,730,529 3,710,790,167 11,264,371,594 County Executive -Dev - 414,638,251 92,259,859 2,603,750,851 3,110,648,961 County Assembly -Rec 75,160,737 255,338,260 229,086,771 374,441,030 934,026,798 County Assembly -Dev - 15,138,504 14,980,500 42,816,931 72,935,935 Special Purpose A/c (Specify) - - 119,464,530 234,802,810 354,267,340 Total 802,611,387 4,001,515,263 3,965,522,189 6,966,601,789 15,736,250,628 Source: Turkana County Treasury The County Executive received KES. 11,264,371,594 for the recurrent expenditure and KES. 3,110,648,961 for the development expenditure. The County Assembly received KES. 934,026,798 for recurrent expenditure and KES. 72,935,935 for development expenditure. The fourth quarter had the highest CRF releases of KES. 6,966,601,789 while the first quarter had the least CRF releases of KES. 802,611,387. 14 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023 2.2.3.3 Expenditure by Category. The total expenditure for FY 2022/2023 amounted to KES. 15,357,504,482 against a revised estimate of KES. 18,409,129,261 implying 83 per cent burn rate. Absorption for recurrent and development expenditure stood at 97% and 54% respectively. See Table 15 below: Table 15: Expenditure by Category, FY 2022/2023 EXPENSE CATEGORY REVISED BUDGET TOTAL ABSORPTION EXPENDITURE RATE CURRENT 12,528,851,157.34 12,190,032,535.65 97% DEVELOPMENT 5,880,278,103.85 3,167,471,946.60 54% TOTAL 18,409,129,261.19 15,357,504,482.25 83% Source: Turkana County Treasury The development absorption rate did not meet expectations because of operation challenges emanating from inefficiencies in the procurement processes and systems, governance transitions and delays and late disbursement of funds. 15 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023 2.2.3.4 Expenditure by Entity. In the period under review, the total county expenditure including the County Assembly expenditure stood at KES 15,357,504,482.25 representing an aggregate absorption rate of 83 per cent of the revised budget estimates. The expenditure performance for each county entity is as shown in Table 16 below: Table 16: Expenditure by Entity, FY 2022/2023 Total Expenditure Variance (4) Absorption Department Annual Budget (1) (3) Year-To-Date (1-3) Rate (%)(5) Governance 769,245,836.00 502,855,421.50 266,390,415 65% Office of the Deputy Governor 56,151,658.00 37,848,006.05 18,303,652 67% County Attorney 155,703,316.00 123,865,222.40 31,838,094 80% Finance and Economic Planning 3,335,446,759.78 3,345,730,189.70 -10,283,430 100% Water Services, Environment and 919,105,969.00 526,101,029.10 393,004,940 57% Mineral Resources Health & Sanitation Services 1,609,864,211.75 812,333,725.45 797,530,486 50% Trade, Gender and Youth Affairs 588,954,068.00 503,284,504.35 85,669,564 85% Education, Sports and Social Protection 1,177,985,410.00 766,622,402.40 411,363,008 65% Public Service, Administration. & 5,481,462,952.60 5,859,316,170.50 -377,853,218 107% Disaster Management Infrastructure Transport & Public 636,241,986.00 468,649,053.05 167,592,933 74% Works Agriculture, Pastoral Economy & 1,361,577,848.68 762,699,206.15 598,878,643 56% Fisheries Tourism, Culture and Natural 401,910,956.00 327,673,152.15 74,237,804 82% Resources Lands, Energy, Housing & Urban Areas 224,765,453.00 107,173,783.95 117,591,669 48% Mgt. County Public Service Board 160,527,898.30 132,732,487.70 27,795,411 83% County Assembly 1,249,468,006.45 1,006,962,731.35 242,505,275 81% Lodwar Municipality 280,716,931.63 73,657,396.45 207,059,535 26% TOTAL 18,409,129,261.19 15,357,504,482.25 -3,051,624,779 83% Source: Analysis by County Treasury, Directorate of Budget Public Service, Administration and Disaster Management incurred the highest expenditure of KES. 5,859,316,170.50, majorly driven by spending in personnel emoluments, staff benefits and purchases of humanitarian relief food among other expenditure items, registering an average absorption rate of 107%. Lodwar Municipality had the least expenditure at 26 per cent. 16 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023 2.2.3.5 Recurrent Expenditure. The overall county recurrent expenditure stood at KES. 12,190,032,536 which translates to 97 per cent absorption rate. County Department of Public Service and Disaster Management posted the highest expenditure of KES. 5,733,479,871. The entity with the lowest recurrent expenditure was the Office of the Deputy Governor by KES. 37,848,006. Table 17: Recurrent Expenditure by Entity, FY 2022/2023 Current Absorptio Department Revised Budget Expenditure n Rate Office of the Governor 525,971,265 497,888,952 95% Office of the Deputy Governor 56,151,658 37,848,006 67% County Attorney 155,703,316 123,865,222 80% Finance and Economic Planning 2,499,798,386 2,375,826,979 95% Water Services, Environment and Mineral 138,090,716 98,167,397 71% Resources Health & Sanitation Services 1,105,860,423 698,882,507 63% Trade, Gender and Youth Affairs 153,690,803 103,793,680 68% Education, Sports and Social Protection 687,288,413 664,350,562 97% Public Services, Decentralized 5,445,896,104 5,733,479,871 105% Adminstration & Disaster Management Infrastructure Transport & Public Works 80,150,477 53,485,744 67% Agriculture, Pastoral Economy & Fisheries 151,408,874 475,023,032 314% Tourism, Culture and Natural Resources 130,820,287 114,154,453 87% Lands, Energy, Housing & Urban Areas 106,727,508 84,389,784 79% Mgt. County Public Service Board 158,527,898.30 132,732,488 84% County Assembly 1,024,468,006 934,026,796 91% Lodwar Municipality 108,297,022 62,117,063 57% 12,190,032,53 Total Expenditure 12,528,851,157 97% 6 Source: Analysis by Directorate of Budget, Turkana County. Department of Agriculture Recurrent Expenditure stood at 314% because of expenditure on Animal Feeds, Veterinary Drugs, Range Cubes and Fishing Gears totaling to Kshs. 240,745,500 which had been budgeted as development expenditure but was charged and reported as recurrent expenditure. 17 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023 Trend in recurrent monthly expenditures shows low spending at the start of the FY but grows steadily thereafter. The month of March 2023 posted the highest recurrent expenditure which can be attributed to high CRF releases and spending. Figure IV below shows monthly expenditure trend analysis for FY 2022/23. Figure IV: Recurrent Expenditure by Month, FY 2022/2023 Recurrent Expenditure 2,500,000,000 2,000,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,000,000,000 500,000,000 - FY 2022/23 Source: Analysis by Directorate of Budget, Turkana County 2.2.3.6 Compensation to Employees The compensation to employees amounted to KES. 4,596,875,520.75 translating to 25.17% of the county revenue during the period under review. The compensation to employees by month is as shown in Table 18 below. Table 18: Compensation to Employees by Month Month Amount Jul 373,127,455.57 Aug 372,237,056.33 Sep 376,283,382.13 Oct 392,182,578.49 Nov 399,800,702.53 Dec 415,053,116.75 Jan 372,455,902.43 Feb 380,692,118.88 Mar 371,780,550.43 Apr 370,247,173.73 May 380,430,621.43 Jun 392,584,862.03 Total 4,596,875,520.75 Source: Analysis by Directorate of Budget, Turkana County 18 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023 Amount by Kshs. July August September October November December January February March April May JUNE July 2.2.3.7 Development Expenditure Development performed averagely in the period under review with absorption of 54% amounting to KES. 3,167,471,947 against KES. 5,880,278,104 development budget estimates. The department of Finance and Planning which overspent its development budget by 16% reported the highest expenditure of KES. 969,903,211 due to payment of eligible pending bills followed by Water Services, Environment and Mineral Resources at KES. 427,933,632 and Infrastructure Transport & Public Works KES. 415,163,310. Lodwar Municipality recorded the lowest development expenditure of KES. 11,540,333. The Office of the Deputy Governor and Office of the County Attorney had no development budget hence nil development expenditure. Further it is shown that County Public Service Board did not spend the amount allocated during this period. See Table 19 below: Table 19: Development Expenditure by Entity, FY 2022/2023 Department Revised Development Absorption Budget Expenditure Rate Governance (Office of the Gvn and Liaison) 243,274,571 4,966,470 2% Office of the Deputy Governor - - - County Attorney - - - Finance and Planning 835,648,373 969,903,211 116% Water Services, Environment and Mineral 781,015,253 427,933,632 55% Resources Health & Sanitation Services 504,003,789 113,451,219 23% Trade, Gender and Youth Affairs 435,263,265 399,490,824 92% Education, Sports and Social Protection 490,696,997 102,271,841 21% Public Services, Decentralized Administration & Disaster Management 35,566,848 125,836,300 354% Infrastructure Transport & Public Works 556,091,509 415,163,310 75% Agriculture, Pastoral Economy & Fisheries 1,210,168,975 287,676,174 24% Tourism, Culture and Natural Resources 271,090,669 213,518,699 79% Lands, Energy, Housing & Urban Areas Mgt. 118,037,945 22,784,000 19% County Public Service Board 225,000,000 - 0% County Assembly 2,000,000 72,935,935 42% Lodwar Municipality 172,419,910 11,540,333 0% TOTAL EXPENDITURE 5,880,278,104 3,167,471,947 54% Source: Analysis by Directorate of Budget, Turkana County Notably the development expenditure for the Department of Public Services, Decentralized Administration & Disaster Management abnormally surpassed its development to 354%. This is because some recurrent items on relief programme were paid and recorded as development expenditure. 19 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023 Monthly development expenditure analysis from July 2022 and June 2023 is as demonstrated in the table below. The Month of July 2022 reported the least expenditure reflecting the beginning of the year whereby less spending is normally experienced. Figure V: Development Expenditure by Month, FY 2022/2023 DEVELOPMENT EXPENDITURE 1,600,000,000 1,400,000,000 1,200,000,000 1,000,000,000 800,000,000 600,000,000 400,000,000 200,000,000 - (200,000,000) (400,000,000) FY 2022/23 Source: Analysis by Directorate of Budget, Turkana County 20 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023 Amount by Kshs. July August September October November December January February March April May JUNE July 2.2.3.9 Quarterly Expenditure Total expenditure is analyzed by quarter as shown in Table 21 below. First quarter reported the lowest expenditure of KES 943,907,642 majorly due to the fact that this is the beginning of the year quarter. Highest exchequer issues and CRF releases were realized in the fourth quarter hence highest expenditure of KES. 6,954,097,206 was recorded. Table 21: Quarterly Expenditure by Entity, FY 2022/2023 Department Revised Quarter One Quarter Two Quarter Quarter Total Estimates Three Four Expenditure Governance 769,245,836 38,792,915.65 136,507,042 140,283,917 187,271,547 502,855,422 Office of the Deputy Governor 56,151,658 - 7,957,927 11,521,683 18,368,397 37,848,006 County Attorney 155,703,316 - 38,154,467 31,847,951 53,862,804 123,865,222 Finance and Economic 3,335,446,760 8,142,686.00 178,963,754 984,527,861 2,174,095,888 3,345,730,190 Planning Water Services, Environment and 919,105,969 1,644,200.00 26,036,898 37,410,522 461,009,409 526,101,029 Mineral Resources Health & Sanitation Services 1,609,864,212 4,562,741.60 216,589,462 171,036,166 420,145,356 812,333,725 Trade, Gender and Youth Affairs 588,954,068 4,884,440.00 208,405,691 183,067,963 106,926,411 503,284,504 Education, Sports and Social 1,177,985,410 607,200.00 425,724,776 151,195,093 189,095,333 766,622,402 Protection Public Service, Administration. & Disaster 5,481,462,953 659,742,177.85 1,746,837,753 1,519,890,810 1,932,845,430 5,859,316,171 Management Infrastructure Transport & Public 636,241,986 3,940,640.00 26,188,047 46,600,130 391,920,236 468,649,053 Works Agriculture, Pastoral Economy 1,361,577,849 530,786.00 129,149,755 236,363,688 396,654,978 762,699,206 & Fisheries Tourism, Culture and Natural 401,910,956 4,319,172.00 49,679,313 116,841,947 156,832,720 327,673,152 Resources Lands, Energy, Housing & Urban 224,765,453 - 25,241,880 22,444,367 59,487,537 107,173,784 Areas Mgt. County Assembly 1,249,468,006 216,740,682.84 216,740,683 258,740,683 314,740,683 1,006,962,731 County Public Service Board 160,527,898 - 43,254,708 38,746,009 50,731,771 132,732,488 Lodwar Municipality 280,716,932 - 7,980,510 25,568,180 40,108,707 73,657,396 TOTAL 18,409,129,261 943,907,642 3,483,412,665 3,976,086,969 6,954,097,206 15,357,504,482 Source: Analysis by Directorate of Budget, Turkana County 21 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023 2.2.3.10 Yearly Expenditure The Table below demonstrates the budget against the expenditure trend analysis since devolution started in the year 2013. Generally the budget estimates and the attendant expenditure has steadily been rising with a dip in the fiscal year 2017/2018, this being an election year that generated slowed economic growth. Figure VI: Yearly Expenditure, 2013 - 2023 YEAR TO YEAR EXPENDITURE 20,000,000,000.00 18,000,000,000.00 16,000,000,000.00 14,000,000,000.00 12,000,000,000.00 10,000,000,000.00 8,000,000,000.00 6,000,000,000.00 4,000,000,000.00 2,000,000,000.00 0.00 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 /23 3/2 0 4/2 0 0 5/2 6/2 0 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 22 01 01 01 1 1 7 18 19 0 1 0 2 2 2 20 20 20 20 20 2 02 2 Total Expenditure Total Budget 2 Financial Years Source: Analysis by Directorate of Budget, Turkana County 22 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023 Amount in Kshs. 3.0 RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND OUTLOOK. 3.1 World Economic Outlook World economic growth slowed to 3.5 percent in 2022 from a growth of 6.3 percent in 2021 as high global inflation, energy and value chain disruptions, and impact of monetary policy tightening in most world economies weighed on economic activity. The growth is projected to slow down further to 3.0 percent in 2023 and 2024 due to the impact of ongoing monetary policy tightening to address inflationary pressures. Global inflationary pressures have responded to policy tightening but inflation exceeds central bank targets in most countries. Recent actions by authorities to contain banking sector challenges in the United States and Swiss Banking have reduced the immediate risk of financial sector instability. However, intensification of the conflict in Ukraine, volatility in the global oil prices and extreme weather related shocks could weigh on the global economic outlook. Advanced economies are projected to record a slower growth of 1.5 percent in 2023 and 1.4 percent in 2024 from 2.7 percent in 2022. About 93 percent of the countries in the advanced economies are projected to have a lower growth in 2023 and 2024. This slowdown is largely driven by aggressive monetary policy tightening in advanced economies that have increased concerns about escalating financial markets uncertainty, particularly persistent high interest rates and vulnerability of the banking sector. Growth in the emerging market and developing economies, is projected to be broadly stable at 4.0 percent in 2023 and 4.1 percent in 2024, although with notable shifts across regions. The sluggish global growth, high inflation rates and the challenging global and domestic financial conditions continue to weigh on the growth for sub-Saharan Africa region. The region economic growth is projected to slow down to 3.5 percent in 2023 from 3.9 percent in 2022, before picking up to 4.1 percent in 2024. 3.2 Kenya’s Economic Performance and Outlook Economic Performance In the 10 years pre-COVID-19 pandemic, the economic growth averaged 5.0 percent whereas in the two years post COVID-19 pandemic the growth momentum picked up to average 6.2 percent. The Kenyan economy in 2022 demonstrated resilience in the face of severe multiple shocks that included the adverse impact of climate change, lingering effects 23 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023 of COVID-19, global supply chain disruption and the impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict. As such, the economic growth slowed down to 4.8 percent in 2022 from 7.6 percent in 2021. In 2020, the economy received adequate rainfall that resulted in increased production in the agriculture sector growing by 4.6 percent. However, the country subsequently, experienced a severe climate related shock in the form of a severe drought that was also experienced in the Horn of Africa and the East African regions. The drought not only aggravated the inflationary pressures but also subjected millions of people to severe food insecurity, loss of lives, livelihoods and led to loss of livestock. This resulted in the contraction of the agriculture sector by 0.4 percent 2021 and 1.6 percent in 2022. The performance of the industry sector slowed down to 3.5 percent in 2022 compared to a growth of 6.8 percent in 2021 on account of a slowdown in activities in the manufacturing, electricity and water supply and construction sub-sectors. In the year, services sector remained strong growing at 6.7 percent, with improved performance in information and communication, financial and insurance and professional, administrative and support services sub-sectors. There were also substantial growths in accommodation and food services, and transport and storage sub-sectors. In the first quarter of 2023, real GDP growth was at 5.3 percent mainly due to a 5.8 percent recovery in the agricultural activities that reflected improved rainfall conditions and the impact of fertilizer and seed subsidies provided to the farmers by the Government (Table 15). The recovery in agriculture was reflected in enhanced production, especially of food crops that led to significant increase in export of vegetables and fruits. Sectoral GDP Performance Manufacturing sub-sector expanded by 2.0 percent in the first quarter of 2023 mainly supported by the manufacture of food products that included bakery products and processing and preservation of fish. In the non-food manufacturing the growth performance was supported by substantial growth in the manufacture of basic metals and fabricated metal products. Electricity and Water Supply sub-sector expanded by 2.3 percent supported by increased generation of electricity from renewable sources such as geothermal and wind that more than offset the decline in generation from hydroelectric sources. However, construction activities slowed down due to the decline in the volume of cement 24 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023 consumption and imports of various construction materials such as bitumen and iron and steel. The activities in the services sector remained strong in the first quarter of 2023 growing by 6.0 percent largely characterized by significant growths in accommodation and food Service; information and communication technology; transportation and storage; financial and insurance; and wholesale and retail trade sub-sectors. Available economic indicators in the first three quarters of 2023 remain strong with the continued recovery in the agricultural sector and sustained performance of the services sector. In this respect, economic growth is projected at 5.5 percent in 2023 and 5.7 percent in 2024 supported by broad-based private sector growth and sustained government investment in the nine priority value chains ( Leather, Cotton, Dairy, Edible Oils, Tea, Rice, Blue economy, Natural Resources (including Minerals and Forestry), and Building Materials). Additionally, public sector investments in infrastructure and implementation of prudent fiscal and monetary policies will continue to support economic activity (Figure 8). Inflation Inflation remained above the Government target range of 5±2.5 percent from June 2022 to June 2023. In order to anchor inflation expectations and bring down inflation within the target range, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) gradually raised the policy rate (Central Bank Rate (CBR)) from 7.50 percent in May 2022 to 10.50 percent in June 2023. The MPC retained the 10.50 percent in August 2023. Consequently, inflation declined significantly to 6.7 percent in August 2023, from a peak of 9.6 percent in October 2022. The decline largely reflects the easing of food prices and impact of monetary policy tightening (Figure 9). Food inflation remained the dominant driver of overall inflation in August 2023. However, it declined to 7.5 percent in August 2023 from a peak of 15.0 percent in August 2022 reflecting easing of food prices arising from increased supply due to ongoing harvests, seasonally factors, international developments and Government measures on zero rated imports. Nonetheless, sugar prices remained elevated driven by domestic and global factors. Fuel inflation remained elevated driven by high energy prices. It increased to 14.2 percent in August 2023 from 8.6 percent in August 2022. The increase reflects gradual withdraw 25 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023 of the fuel subsidize from September 2022 and the upward adjustment of electricity tariff from April 2023. In addition, the upward adjustment of VAT on petroleum product in July 2023 from 8.0 percent to 16.0 percent exacted upward pressures on prices. However, prices of cooking gas continued to decline and moderated inflation reflecting the impact of the zero-rating of VAT on liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). Core (non-food non-fuel) inflation increased from 3.2 percent in August 2022, to a peak of 4.4 percent in March 2023, and has declined to 3.7 percent in August 2023. The decline is attributed to the contractionary monetary policy aimed at taming the spillover effects of high energy prices. Interest Rates Reflecting the tight monetary policy stance, interest rates increased in the year to August 2023. The interbank rate increased to 12.5 percent in August 2023 compared to 5.4 percent in August 2022 while the 91-day Treasury Bills rate increased to 13.4 percent compared to 8.6 percent over the same period (Figure 9). The 182-day Treasury Bills rate increased to 13.4 percent in August 2023 from 9.5 percent in August 2022 while the 364-day also increased to 13.6 percent from 9.9 percent over the same period. The introduction of the interest rate corridor, in August 2023, is expected to align the interbank rate to the Central Bank Rate and thereby improve the transmission of the monetary policy. Commercial banks average lending and deposit rates increased in the year to June 2023 in tandem with the tightening of the monetary policy stance. The average lending rate increased to 13.3 percent in June 2023 from 12.3 percent in June 2022 while the average deposit rate increased to 7.8 percent from 6.6 percent over the same period. Consequently, the average interest rate spread declined to 5.5 percent in June 2023 from 5.7 percent in June 2022 (Figure 12). Performance in Capital Markets Activity in the capital markets slowed down in August 2023 compared to August 2022 as advanced economies tightened their monetary policy amid inflationary pressures. The NSE 20 Share Index declined to 1,540 points in August 2023 compared to 1,751 points in August 2022 while Market capitalization declined to KSh 1,545 billion from KSh 2,142 billion over the same period (Figure 16). 26 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023 Economic Outlook Kenya’s economic performance is projected to remain strong and resilient over the medium term (Table 18 in calendar years and Annex Table 1 in fiscal years). The economy recorded a strong growth of 5.3 percent in the first quarter reflecting a strong recovery in agriculture sector and buoyant services sector including financial and insurance, information and communication, wholesale and retail trade and transport and storage. The economy is expected to remain strong and expand by 5.5 percent in 2023 (5.6 percent in FY 2023/24) and 5.7 percent in 2024 (5.9 percent in FY 2024/25). This growth will be supported by the strong recovery in agriculture and resilient services sector that both drive the industrial sector. The adequate rainfall during the long rain season in most parts of the country and the anticipated short rains later in 2023 will continue to support activities in the agriculture, electricity, and water supply sectors. The improved availability of raw materials following the recovery in agriculture and a decline in global commodity prices will support food processing in the manufacturing sector. Additionally, activities in the construction sector will be boosted by the affordable housing programme. Services sector will be supported by resilient activities in the financial and insurance, information and communication, wholesale and retail trade and transport and storage, among others. The easing of global commodity prices and supply chain constraints coupled with robust private sector investment are expected to support domestic demand. On the demand side, private consumption is expected to remain on a robust growth path in the near term. The easing of inflationary pressures will result in strong household disposable income, which in turn will support household consumption. The interventions by the Government through the Financial inclusion initiative popularly known as the Hustlers Fund will strengthen MSMEs thereby correcting market failures for the vast majority of Kenya's at the bottom of the pyramid. This will strengthen the private sector led growth opportunities. The multi-year fiscal consolidation program by the Government has been incorporated in the projections and is expected to lower the fiscal deficit and achieve a positive primary balance over the medium term. This will reduce debt vulnerabilities and strengthen debt sustainability and lead to improvement in investors’ confidence, leading to robust private investment and economic growth over the medium term. The lower domestic financing needs of the Government, will enable the expanded lending to the private sector by the banking sector. 27 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023 The development spending in the budget will be retained at an average of 5.6 percent of GDP so as not to impact on growth momentum. This will enhance Government investment in the nine priority value chains ( Leather, Cotton, Dairy, Edible Oils, Tea, Rice, Blue economy, Natural Resources (including Minerals and Forestry), and Building Materials). Additionally, it will support investments in key projects under the Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda (BETA) including construction of dams, improvement of road networks and ports and laying of additional National Fiber Optic network. Enhanced digitalization, is expected to improve efficiency and productivity in the economy. In particular, investment in digital superhighway will result in enhanced connectivity and access to broadband services which will lower the cost of doing business, enhance efficiency and create employment opportunity. Kenya’s exports of goods and services is expected to continue strengthening supported by receipts from tourism and implementation of crops and livestock value chains, specifically, exports of tea, coffee, vegetables and fresh horticultural produce, among others. The expected recovery of Kenya’s trading partners and the implementation of Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) will enhance demand for exports of Kenyan manufactured products. Current account deficit will average 5.4 percent of GDP between 2023 and 2027. The projected robust domestic demand sustained by private investment, will sustain imports of raw materials, machinery and equipment for private construction, and household consumption. In addition, global oil price continues to stabilize lowering the oil import bill. In the Balance of Payments Statement, external financing needs will be met mainly by equity inflows and foreign direct investment given the conducive business climate that Government has created particularly the fiscal policy predictability. Improvement in the current account, boosted by robust export earnings and strong remittance inflows the will continue to support stability in the foreign exchange market. 3.5 Turkana County Economy Turkana County Economy is majorly driven by livestock production, trading activities ,fishing and it operates within the confines of the Global and National Economic Framework and as such changes in the Global and National economic environment affects the county’s economic decisions and operations either directly or indirectly. In the medium term, the National Treasury in collaboration with stakeholders is undertaking a number of 28 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023 reforms to assist counties enhance revenue collection. Some of the measures include; proposal for an establishment of a Multi-Agency Taskforce on Tax Analysis and Revenue Forecasting with the aim of developing a tool for OSR analysis and forecasting among County Governments; review of existing legislations and automation of revenue collection and management. In addition, the National Treasury is planning to build the capacity of County Governments to generate statistics that conform to the Government Finance Statistics 2014 Manual beginning in FY 2023/24. This will strengthen the County Government’s fiscal policy making including realistic revenue forecasting and realization. 29 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023 4.0 RESOURCE ALLOCATION FRAMEWORK 4.1 Implementation of FY 2023/2024 Budget FY 2023/2024 Budget implementation has commenced with prospects of economic recovery although the economic outlook has become more uncertain reflecting rising cost of living, adverse effects of climate change and economic slowdown partly caused by disruptions in the global supply chains by. The Budget is implemented with a vision to transforming this county to a desirable level of development through the Nine Point Agenda. The Agenda focuses mainly on water provision as a universal right; Food security through crop production, livestock development, fisheries and blue economy; Peace building and conflict resolution; Health services and sanitation.; Revitalizing education and child protection; Land, minerals and natural resources management; Trade, industries and enterprise development; Wealth creation/local county revenue enhancement; Collaboration and Strategic partnership. The projected total revised revenue estimate for FY 2023/2024 is at KES. 17,097,070,470.05; comprising KES 13,143,946,933 as the equitable share; KES. 220,000,000 as revenue expected from the own revenue sources; KES 1,335,661,113.90 as expected releases from the Conditional Grants Commitments and ; carry forward from unspent funds from the FY 2021/22 of KES 2,397,462,423.15. The recurrent and development expenditure proposals have been spread as KES 10,168,876,881.00 and KES 6,928,193,589.05 respectively. Personnel emoluments for the year is budgeted at KES. 5,465,289,699.00 (including salaries for the Assembly) which represent 31.97 per cent of the total revenue which is below the maximum legal threshold limit for wages and salaries. 4.2 FY 2023/2024 Budget Framework FY 2023/2024 budget framework is intended to escalate the county government’s development efforts to transform the County to a desired level of economic development. Priority will be given to those programmes that contribute to infrastructural development, harnessing the available resources, collaboration with the development partners and wealth creation. The country is currently implementing the Medium-Term Plan (MTP) IV of the Vision 2030. MTP IV entrenches the national government’s Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda 30 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023 (BETA) which focuses on Agricultural Transformation and Inclusive Growth; transforming the Micro, Small and Medium Enterprise (MSMEs) Economy; Housing and Settlement; Healthcare; and Digital Superhighway and Creative Economy. These priorities are captured and planned in the CIDP 2023-2027 and Annual Development Plan 2023/24. The county focus on these plans is specifically in the Nine Point Agenda. 4.3 Medium Term Plan Fiscal Projections and Expenditure Framework Aggressive resource mobilization will be coordinated by the resource mobilization department to ensure that the county government generates enough funds for the provision of basic services. The realization of the welfare improvement, provision of core services and elimination of duplication will have an impact on budget ceilings. The criteria that will be used in allocation of resources will be; i. Programmes linked to CIDP III ii. Programmes incorporated in the Annual Development Plan 2024/2025 iii. Programmes with the core mandates for the county entities iv. Ongoing projects from FY 2023/2024 v. Pending Bills vi. Expected outcomes and outputs from programmes vii. Cost effectiveness and sustainability of programmes 31 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023 5.0 RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS 5.1 Observations i. The county adhered to all fiscal responsibility principles as outlined in the PFM Act, 2012. ii. Own Source Revenue did not surpass the set target of KES 198,000,000.Aggressive and deliberate efforts must be engaged to generate more revenue. iii. The county received the entire Equitable Share Revenue for the period. This positively impacted the expenditure performance. iv. Some development partners did not honor their financial commitments to release all conditional grants. This either resulted into delayed or none implementation of partner funded programmes. v. The county performed very well in recurrent expenditure at 97 per cent of the total recurrent budget and an average at 54 per cent of the total development expenditure. vi. Some departments experienced budget overrun. 5.2 Recommendations i. Spending should be done within the precincts of the budget to ensure budget credibility. ii. Kibish and Turkana East posted least revenue because of insecurity and being far flung. There is a deliberate need for both levels of governments to support these areas to ensure businesses are running and revenue is collected effectively. iii. Low OSR performing streams to be supported to reach their potential to generate sufficient revenue. iv. There is need for timely release of funds from the national government. v. Constant follow up and engagements from entities implementing the conditional grants to ensure development partners have honored their financing agreements. Equally, county entities should at all times adhere to donor financing conditions. vi. There is need to fast track efficiency in contract management, procurement processes and project planning and design. vii. Overspending on Personnel Emoluments was attributed to the underestimation in Personnel Emoluments budget. Therefore, we recommend that budgeting for Personnel Emoluments going forward should be done by each department. Departments should be given the opportunity to budget for their staff under the guidance of the Public Service, Administration and Disaster Management Department. 32 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023 5.3 Conclusions i. The attention of all county government entities is hereby drawn to the FY 2023/2024 MTEF Budget Circular issued in August 2023 for further guidelines including the timelines for the preparation and finalization of the FY 2024/25 budget estimates ii. The Accounting Officers are therefore called upon to adhere to the fiscal objectives and strict budget implementation timelines considering the changes made on the dates of performance delivery for the current financial year. iii. Sector Working Groups (SWGs) will be required to consult and formulate the relevant programmes, projects and the sectoral cross cutting issues that are to be included in the CIDP III and FY 2023/2024 Budget Proposals. SWGs should allocate funds to programmes and projects that stimulate inclusive growth and sustainable economic recovery and align them to H.E the Governor’s 9- Point Agenda. 33 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023 ANNEXES ANNEX I: REVISED FY 2022/2023 BUDGET ESTIMATES VOTE RECURRENT EXPENDITURE DEVELOPMENT TOTAL EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURE Governance 525,971,265 243,274,571 769,245,836 Office of the Deputy Governor 56,151,658 - 56,151,658 County Attorney 155,703,316 - 155,703,316 Finance and Economic Planning 2,499,798,386 835,648,373 3,335,446,760 Water Services, Environment and Mineral Resources 138,090,716 781,015,253 919,105,969 Health & Sanitation Services 1,105,860,423 504,003,789 1,609,864,212 Trade, Gender and Youth Affairs 153,690,803 435,263,265 588,954,068 Education, Sports and Social Protection 687,288,413 490,696,997 1,177,985,410 Public Service, Administration. & Disaster Management 5,445,896,104 35,566,848 5,481,462,953 Infrastructure Transport & Public Works 80,150,477 556,091,509 636,241,986 Agriculture, Pastoral Economy & Fisheries 151,408,874 1,210,168,975 1,361,577,849 Tourism, Culture and Natural Resources 130,820,287 271,090,669 401,910,956 Lands, Energy, Housing & Urban Areas Mgt. 106,727,508 118,037,945 224,765,453 County Assembly 1,024,468,006 225,000,000 1,249,468,006 County Public Service Board 158,527,898 2,000,000 160,527,898 Lodwar Municipality 108,297,022 172,419,910 280,716,932 TOTAL EXPENDITURE 12,528,851,157 5,880,278,104 18,409,129,261 34 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023 ANNEX II: COMPREHENSIVE FY 2022/2023 EXPENDITURE COUNTY ENTITY Department Final Budget July August September October November December January February March April May June July TOTAL EXPENDITURE. Estimates Governance Recurrent 525,971,265 38,792,916 3 0,949,249 4 5,206,627 60,351,166 40,435,466 50,540,373 49,308,078 1 13,182,397 13,034,247 41,175,272 14,913,161 497,888,952 OOG Development 243,274,571 4,966,470 4,966,470 ODG Office of the Deputy Governor Recurrent 56,151,658 5,468,892 2,489,035 1,997,800 5,810,472 3,713,410 2,832,200 2,286,894 7,887,798 5,361,505 37,848,006 OCA Development - - FEP County Attorney Recurrent 155,703,316 1,620,480 29,078,221 7,455,766 860,100 20,975,872 10,011,979 4,704,191 6,918,207 21,020,761 21,219,646 123,865,222 WS Development - - HEALTH Finance and Planning Recurrent 2,499,798,386 8,142,686 40,310,480 50,885,300 87,767,974 150,438,107 73,559,666 760,530,088 592,061,585 292,135,817 199,424,156 120,571,119 2,375,826,979 TRADE Development 835,648,373 395,970,299 138,462,249 53,626,699 381,843,964 969,903,211 EDUCATION Water Services, Environment and Recurrent 138,090,716 1,644,200 11,968,408 4,643,106 9,425,384 4,276,816 11,458,541 83,305,643 9,988,169 8,449,511 11,704,479 2,933,619 159,797,875 PSADM Mineral Resources Development 781,015,253 4,987,027 14,515,650 85,736,807 322,694,148 427,933,632 ROADS Health & Sanitation Services Recurrent 1,105,860,423 4,562,742 11,348,432 48,854,847 156,386,182 10,104,207 24,799,005 135,397,391 32,342,919 41,070,746 82,591,141 151,424,894 698,882,507 APEF Development 504,003,789 735,563 4,899,896 8,292,757 24,107,581 75,415,421 113,451,219 TCNR Trade, Gender and Youth Affairs Recurrent 153,690,803 4,884,440 10,741,493 12,726,220 19,616,153 4,319,387 9,681,290 14,417,286 398,554 5,050,354 20,483,210 1,475,294 103,793,680 LANDS Development 435,263,265 165,321,825 154,650,000 70,846,780 8,672,219 399,490,824 CPSB Education, Sports and Social Protection Recurrent 687,288,413 607,200 396,927,570 10,978,744 15,945,712 17,256,900 20,233,956 113,704,237 9,117,570 21,284,421 20,044,487 38,249,763 664,350,562 LM Development 490,696,997 1,872,750 85,963 6,033,241 18,004,119 76,275,768 102,271,841 Public Services, Decentralized Recurrent 5,445,896,104 659,742,178 419,216,481 630,018,932 697,602,341 579,255,708 92,005,191 786,999,434 34,436,872 854,801,590 628,776,665 288,994,003 5,671,849,393 Adminstration & Disaster Management Development 35,566,848 125,836,300 125,836,300 Infrastructure Transport & Public Recurrent 80,150,477 3,940,640 1,893,500 290,705 9,923,742 3,813,295 3,685,938 12,085,377 2,140,959 8,498,662 7,212,926 53,485,744 Works Development 556,091,509 14,080,100 27,015,520 43,450,736 36,913,671 93,035,989 200,667,293 415,163,310 Agriculture, Pastoral Economy & Recurrent 151,408,874 530,786 16,770,858 4,125,983 108,252,914 96,185,347 54,939,839 19,994,163 3,112,754 8,262,695 157,397,546 5,450,147 475,023,032 Fisheries Development 1,210,168,975 43,244,339 22,000,000 72,671,830 42,527,823 107,232,183 287,676,174 Tourism, Culture and Natural Resources Recurrent 130,820,287 4,319,172 6,232,909 13,380,611 30,065,794 3,106,697 27,211,772 8,545,465 7,602,433 6,964,574 5,695,769 1,029,259 114,154,453 Development 271,090,669 77,978,013 65,000,000 44,241,563 26,299,123 213,518,699 Lands, Energy, Housing & Urban Areas Recurrent 106,727,508 7,022,065 5,191,196 13,028,619 371,000 8,358,134 13,715,233 952,365 1,060,536 21,095,818 13,594,818 84,389,784 Mgt. Development 118,037,945 2,995,000 19,789,000 22,784,000 County Assembly Recurrent 1,024,468,006 66,168,900 66,168,900 66,168,900 66,168,900 66,168,900 66,168,900 66,168,900 66,168,900 108,168,900 66,168,900 66,168,900 164,168,900 934,026,796 Development 225,000,000 6,077,995 6,077,995 6,077,995 6,077,995 6,077,995 6,077,995 6,077,995 6,077,995 6,077,995 6,077,995 6,077,995 6,077,995 72,935,935 1,006,962,731 County Public Service Board Recurrent 158,527,898 10,877,802 12,146,218 20,230,688 11,038,136 15,973,965 11,733,908 8,292,454 14,456,273 18,192,717 9,790,327 132,732,488 Development 2,000,000 - Lodwar Municipality Recurrent 108,297,022 515,345 2,888,010 4,577,155 163,701 13,954,120 11,450,358 8,834,895 11,161,462 8,572,016 62,117,063 Development 172,419,910 11,540,333 11,540,333 EXECUTIVE BUDGET 18,409,129,261 72,246,894 72,246,894 799,413,853 1,203,963,790 948,130,507 1,331,318,369 1,255,513,093 549,414,931 2,171,158,945 1,413,337,108 1,699,062,961 1,794,638,888 2,047,058,249 15,357,504,482 14,350,541,751 - 35 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023 ANNEX III: EXPENDITURE BY CATEGORY, FY 2022/2023 EXPENSE CATEGORY REVISED BUDGET TOTAL EXPENDITURE ABSORPTION RATE CURRENT 12,528,851,157.34 12,190,032,535.65 97% DEVELOPMENT 5,880,278,103.85 3,167,471,946.60 54% TOTAL 18,409,129,261.19 15,357,504,482.25 83% 36 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023 ANNEX IV: CFSP 2023 CEILINGS County Entity 2022/23 Recurrent Development Total Percentages Kshs Kshs Governance 350,208,134.00 8 8,549,142.00 438,757,276.00 3.43% Deputy Governor 4 8,551,658.00 - 4 8,551,658.00 0.38% County Attorny 138,103,316.00 - 138,103,316.00 1.08% Finance and Economic Planning 383,933,261.00 6 2,127,220.00 446,060,481.00 3.48% Water Services 135,390,716.00 474,515,253.00 609,905,969.00 4.76% Health and Sanitation 577,115,791.00 595,894,317.00 1,173,010,108.00 9.16% Trade, Gender and Youth a f 1fa0ir4s ,532,243.00 410,321,825.00 514,854,068.00 4.02% Education, Sports and Soc i a 6l P3r4ot,e1c3ti2on,019.82 494,846,999.00 1,128,979,018.82 8.82% Public Service, Admin & D 4is,a8s6te4r ,M69an3a,g0e7m7e.n0t0 5 1,405,566.00 4,916,098,643.00 38.39% Infrastructure Transport & P u 9 b4lic, 9W5o0rk,4s77.00 538,512,656.00 633,463,133.00 4.95% Agriculture, Pastoral Econ o m 1y5 a3n,d8 5Fi8sh,8er7ie4s.18 602,828,820.00 756,687,694.18 5.91% Tourism, Cult, Energy, En v &1 0N4R,620,287.00 261,090,669.00 365,710,956.00 2.86% Lands, PP, Hsing & UAM 6 5,195,358.00 216,765,159.00 281,960,517.00 2.20% County Assembly 821,950,164.00 200,000,000.00 1,021,950,164.00 7.98% County Public Service Boa r d 9 4,603,316.00 - 9 4,603,316.00 0.74% Lodwar Municipality 105,097,022.00 133,512,656.00 238,609,678.00 1.86% Total 8,676,935,714.00 4,130,370,282.00 12,807,305,996.00 100.00% 37 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023 ANNEX V: OWN SOURCE REVENUE FY 2022/2023 REVENUE STREAM MINISTRY Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 1st Quarter Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 2nd Quarter Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 3rd Quarter Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 4th Quarter TOTALS SINGLE BUSINESS PERMIT(Application TRADE 702,712 282,977 268,348 1,254,037 581,927 1,150,170 61,800 1,793,897 10,009,432 8,477,722 7,146,900 25,634,054 4,628,997 9,092,915 4,456,955 18,178,867 46,860,855 fee,renewal,penalties/interest,Arrears) ROYALTY-CESS( Murram, hardcore sand, ballast, LANDS 953,400 586,400 831,310 2,371,110 1,338,600 950,451 1,030,760 3,319,811 1,298,000 1,095,000 1,138,800 3,531,800 1,050,500 719,000 1,534,000 3,303,500 12,526,221 Exploitation) CESS(Agricultural,Transport ,Hide & skin, charcoal cess, TRANSPORT 6,367,900 4,434,690 5,257,695 16,060,285 5,255,200 6,540,155 7,813,370 19,608,725 6,693,960 6,144,180 6,432,785 19,270,925 6,955,741 8,482,360 2,412,350 17,850,451 72,790,386 firewood, miraa cess,scrap metal,Fish) MARKET FEE(Barter, entry fee/offloading,hawking,) TRADE 437,970 633,950 1,458,970 2,530,890 1,353,180 1,515,430 475,750 3,344,360 395,880 432,090 545,440 1,373,410 476,500 194,740 327,940 999,180 8,247,840 SLAUGHTER/AUCTION FEE(Small and Big animals) PASTORAL 813,885 627,910 954,500 2,396,295 1,157,770 1,153,130 858,320 3,169,220 684,880 746,500 690,560 2,121,940 569,875 341,970 578,280 1,490,125 9,177,580 ADVERTISEMENT(Branding,Billboard,Sign post, sign LANDS 37,500 90,100 - 127,600 18,000 11,500 119,000 148,500 104,900 45,700 1,163,300 1,313,900 1,169,300 983 2,338,600 3,508,883 5,098,883 boards,roadshows,banners,posters,tent,street pole/clock advertising,Neon,others) PARKING FEE (Street parking,Monthly stickers,motorbike LANDS 198,300 304,830 252,820 755,950 170,400 208,450 224,350 603,200 351,310 244,900 368,300 964,510 108,000 313,850 216,000 637,850 2,961,510 fees,registration fees,reserved parking,bus park fees and others) TRANSPORT OPERATION FEE -Entry/Exit (Taxi, Bodaboda, ROADS 175,460 72,000 1,200 248,660 - - - - - - 1,000 1,000 - - - - 249,660 Matatu, Canter, Lorry, and buses) LIQUOR LICENCES(Liquor License and Application Fee ) HEALTH - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LAND SURVEY/APPLICATION/ BUILDING LANDS 765,000 540,000 1,410,100 2,715,100 743,000 328,010 419,500 1,490,510 1,002,410 1,024,700 472,010 2,499,120 37,000 471,010 - 508,010 7,212,740 APPROVAL(Land penalties and interest/arrears) PROPERTY RENT/KIOSKS/STALLS(County Housing,Plot LANDS 58,000 51,500 83,500 193,000 60,500 113,500 48,000 222,000 46,000 93,500 1,343,500 1,483,000 - 1,260,000 - 1,260,000 3,158,000 Rent,Tenants Agreement,Transfer of property) PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICES(Inspection of HEALTH 81,700 258,350 108,300 448,350 143,000 113,700 159,900 416,600 187,050 257,350 261,370 705,770 241,950 156,500 245,800 644,250 2,214,970 building/institutions,hygiene licence,vaccination,medical examination,sanitation inspection for schools,permits,fumigation) ADMINISTRATION CONTROL FEES AND CHARGES(Fire TRADE - - - - - 2,000 - 2,000 - 20,000 - 20,000 - - - - 22,000 Services,Betting Levy,others) OTHER FEES PENALTIES AND FORFEITURES- FINANCE 131,615 37,368 296,019 465,002 83,320 17,222 7,450 107,992 781,349 643,637 722,444 2,147,430 397,322 794,644 1,191,966 3,912,390 Impounding fees,Towing Fees and Others PARK FEES-Lodge Tarriffs and Levis,Park Entry fees,filming TOURISM - - - - - - - - - - 45,100 45,100 89,500 - 74,400 163,900 209,000 and photography fees,camping fees,balloon landing fees,others CONSERVANCY ADMINISTRATION-Refuse ENVIRONMENT 23,600 140,780 1,000 165,380 15,000 13,400 66,500 94,900 2,000 - - 2,000 - - - - 262,280 disposal,Dumpsite,Sewerage,Sale of seedlings,public cemetery,disposal of carcases,noise control,others CORPORATES FINANCE 1,650,846 2,006,263 - 3,657,109 1,758,775 508,549 238,788 2,506,112 2,770,930 308,950 - 3,079,880 1,257,000 - 1,257,000 10,500,101 HIRE OF COUNTY ASSETS-Agricultural Mechanisms - - - - - - 1,000 1,000 - - - - - - - - 1,000 Services,Hire of Machines and Equipments,Hire of County Hall,Stadium,Conference Facilities,Agricultural Training Center,Hire of County Tents/Chairs FINANCE PHYSICAL PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT(Sale of - - - - - - - - - - - - 1,225,900 - 1,225,900 2,451,800 2,451,800 county planning documents,change of user,building plans approval,signposts,occupational permits,enforcement/demolition,achitectural designs by county officers,hoarding fees) LANDS MISCELLENOUS RECIEPTS-Dividends,Interest,Commission, - - - - - - - - 20,000 - - 20,000 - - - - 20,000 FINANCE DONATIONS AND GRANTS NOT RECEIVED THROUGH - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CRF(Donations and Grants Based on Source. FINANCE SINGLE BUSINESS PERMIT - Refugees TRADE 195,918 65,454 159,136 420,508 287,052 137,100 41,990 466,142 360,740 1,305,735 - 1,666,475 - - - - 2,553,125 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES TRADE - - - - - - - - 19,020 30,300 17,400 66,720 2,400 - 2,400 4,800 71,520 T0TAL 12,593,806 10,132,572 11,082,898 33,809,275 12,965,724 12,762,767 11,566,478 37,294,969 24,727,861 20,870,264 20,348,909 65,947,034 18,209,985 21,033,328 14,207,269 53,450,582 190,501,861 (12,536,360) 38 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023 ANNEX VI: MEDIUM TERM EXPENDITURE FRAMEWORK PROJECTIONS SECTOR ECONOMIC CLASSIFICATION BUDGET ESTIMATES 2022/23 MTEF PROJECTIONS CEILING 2023/24 2024/2025 OFFICE OF THE GOVERNOR SUB-TOTAL 769,245,836.00 863,093,827.99 784,630,752.72 Rec. Gross 525,971,265 590,139,759.33 536,490,690.30 Dev. Gross 243,274,571 272,954,068.66 248,140,062.42 OFFICE OF THE DEPUTY SUB-TOTAL 56,151,658.00 63,002,160.28 GOVERNOR 57,274,691.16 Rec. Gross 56,151,658 63,002,160.28 57,274,691.16 Dev. Gross - - OFFICE OF THE COUNTY SUB-TOTAL 155,703,316.00 80,000,000.00 ATTORNEY 158,817,382.32 Rec. Gross 155,703,316 80,000,000.00 158,817,382.32 Dev. Gross - - - FINANCE & ECONOMIC SUB-TOTAL 3,335,446,759.78 3,742,371,264.47 PLANNING 3,402,155,694.98 Rec. Gross 2,499,798,386 2,804,773,789.50 2,549,794,354.09 Dev. Gross 835,648,373 937,597,474.98 852,361,340.89 WATER SERVICES, SUB-TOTAL 919,105,969.00 1,031,236,897.22 ENVIRONMENT & MINERAL 937,488,088.38 RESOURCES Rec. Gross 138,090,716 154,937,783.35 140,852,530.32 Dev. Gross 781,015,253 876,299,113.87 796,635,558.06 39 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023 HEALTH & SANITATION SUB-TOTAL 1,609,864,211.75 1,806,267,645.58 SERVICES 1,642,061,495.99 Rec. Gross 1,105,860,423 1,240,775,394.33 1,127,977,631.21 Dev. Gross 504,003,789 565,492,251.26 514,083,864.78 TRADE, GENDER & YOUTH SUB-TOTAL 588,954,068.00 660,806,464.30 AFFAIRS 600,733,149.36 Rec. Gross 153,690,803 172,441,080.97 156,764,619.06 Dev. Gross 435,263,265 488,365,383.33 443,968,530.30 EDUCATION, SPORTS AND SUB-TOTAL 1,177,985,410.00 1,321,699,630.02 SOCIAL PROTECTION 1,201,545,118.20 Rec. Gross 687,288,413 771,137,599.39 701,034,181.26 Dev. Gross 490,696,997 550,562,030.63 500,510,936.94 PUBLIC SERVICE, SUB-TOTAL 5,481,462,952.60 6,150,201,432.82 ADMINSTRATION AND DISASTER 5,591,092,211.65 MANAGEMENT Rec. Gross 5,445,896,104.48 6,110,295,429.23 5,554,814,026.57 Dev. Gross 35,566,848.12 39,906,003.59 36,278,185.08 INFRASTRUCTURE, TRANSPORT, SUB-TOTAL 636,241,986.00 713,863,508.29 AND PUBLIC WORKS 648,966,825.72 Rec. Gross 80,150,477 89,928,835.19 81,753,486.54 Dev. Gross 556,091,509 623,934,673.10 567,213,339.18 AGRICULTURE, PASTORAL SUB-TOTAL 1,361,577,848.68 1,527,690,346.22 ECONOMY & FISHERIES 1,388,809,405.65 Rec. Gross 151,408,874 169,880,756.63 154,437,051.48 40 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023 Dev. Gross 1,210,168,975 1,357,809,589.59 1,234,372,354.17 TOURISM, CULTURE AND SUB-TOTAL 401,910,956.00 450,944,092.63 NATURAL RESOURCES 409,949,175.12 Rec. Gross 130,820,287 146,780,362.01 133,436,692.74 Dev. Gross 271,090,669 304,163,730.62 276,512,482.38 LANDS, ENERGY, HOUSING AND SUB-TOTAL 224,765,453.00 252,186,838.27 URBAN AREAS MANAGEMENT 229,260,762.06 Rec. Gross 106,727,508 119,748,263.98 108,862,058.16 Dev. Gross 118,037,945 132,438,574.29 120,398,703.90 COUNTY ASSEMBLY SUB-TOTAL 1,249,468,006.00 1,401,903,102.73 1,274,457,366.12 Rec. Gross 1,024,468,006 1,149,453,102.73 1,044,957,366.12 Dev. Gross 225,000,000 252,450,000.00 229,500,000.00 COUNTY PUBLIC SERVICE SUB-TOTAL 160,527,898.30 180,112,301.89 BOARD 163,738,456.27 Rec. Gross 158,527,898 177,868,301.89 161,698,456.27 Dev. Gross 2,000,000 2,244,000.00 2,040,000.00 Lodwar Municipality SUB-TOTAL 280,716,931.63 314,964,397.29 286,331,270.26 Rec. Gross 108,297,022 121,509,258.68 110,462,962.44 Dev. Gross 172,419,910 193,455,138.60 175,868,307.82 TOTAL TOTAL 18,409,129,260.74 20,560,343,910.00 18,777,311,845.95 Rec. Gross 12,528,851,156.89 13,962,671,877.48 12,779,428,180.03 Dev. Gross 5,880,278,103.85 6,597,672,032.52 5,997,883,665.93 41 | P a g e Turkana County CBROP 2023