Discussion Paper No. 272 of 2021 on The Effect of Drought Early Warning Systems on Vulnerability of Kenyans Living in the ASALs: A Before and After Analysis Using Interrupted Time Series

Abstract

Kenya has about 80 per cent of its land mass falling within the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs), therefore largely prone to drought events. Science, Technology and Innovation (ST&I) has been incorporated in Kenya’s drought management through drought early warning systems (DEWS). This study sought to determine the effect of DEWS on vulnerability levels of people living in the ASALs, who are most affected by droughts through food insecurity. A comparison of the situation before and after introduction of DEWS, using multigroup Interrupted Time Series (ITS) analysis was undertaken. Data from the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) database on the number of people facing food insecurity in the 23 ASAL counties of Kenya over the years was utilized. The study found that Turkana was the worst affected county in the ASALs with a 41 per cent increase in food insecure population before DEWS, and 20 per cent increase in food insecure population after DEWS. There was, however, a significant marginal reduction in number of people facing food insecurity in Turkana - a reduction of 20 per cent post-DEWS. However, DEWS effect was insignificant in the counties of Garissa, Marsabit, Isiolo, Narok, Samburu, Taita Taveta and Tana River. Two counties recorded a significant reduction in food insecure populations with the adoption of DEWS. Mandera recorded a 67 per cent reduction in food insecure populations over time after DEWS adoption, and Laikipia recorded a 45 per cent reduction in food insecure populations immediately DEWS were adopted. We conclude that DEWS are significant in reducing vulnerability levels of populations living in the ASALs, as illustrated from regression results. However, more effort is needed in increasing its effectiveness