Special Paper No. 06 of 2024 on Relationship Between Drought Early Warning Information and Food and Nutrition Security in Arid and Semi-Arid Lands in Kenya

Abstract

Arid and semi-arid lands represent 88 per cent of the country’s total land mass and are home to 38 per cent of the human population and 60 per cent of livestock and wildlife population. These areas bear the brunt of climate change as manifested through the effects of recurrent droughts. To manage drought effects, the country uses Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) information that is managed by the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA). This study set out to determine the effects of DEWS information on food and nutrition security for 23 ASAL counties for the period January 2016 to December2023. The findings indicate that an increase in standard precipitation index or rainfall is associated with a 6.555 units improvement in food consumption score. A unit increase in the vegetation condition index corresponded to 0.4069 units increase in food consumption score. The reduced coping strategies are effective drought coping mechanisms as they contribute to improved food consumption in ASALs. Further a unit increase in standard precipitation index was associated with an improvement in middle upper arm circumference by 0.1068 units, while a unit increase in the vegetation condition index was associated with nutrition improvement by 0.0076 units. The coping strategies index also significantly affected middle upper arm circumference with a unit increase in coping strategies index, resulting to the mid upper arm circumference increase by 0.0263 units. These findings indicate the critical role of drought early warning systems (DEWS) information in managing nutrition and food security outcomes amid drought episodes. It is therefore important for the government and other stakeholders to: (i) strengthen existing drought early warning systems information to ensure accuracy, and timely data with clear dissemination channels to facilitate early action; (ii) implement a multi-faceted approach to drought and adopt a multi-sectoral approach to address the complex interplay of factors influencing food and nutrition security in ASALs; (iii) invest in drought monitoring and early warning management systems and up to date geospatial technologies for early warning prompt action; (iv) coping strategies be strengthened and scaled up to enable communities better cope with drought emergencies.