Discussion Paper No. 330 of 2024 on The Future of Additive Manufacturing (3D Printing) in Kenya: Scenarios for 2063 Using Delphi Approach

Abstract

The rapid growth of additive manufacturing (AM) is mainly due to its evolution from primarily a prototyping tool to a useful end-product fabrication method. As much as the Government of Kenya has demonstrated its willingness to support 3D printing as an important technology in the development of the manufacturing sector, only 11.4 per cent of firms have adopted the technology. The study assessed the future of additive manufacturing in Kenya through the formulation of the most probable scenarios for 2063 using the Delphi approach. A country transitioning to additive manufacturing by 2063 may find itself experiencing early transition, lagged transition, or late transition. Early transition to additive manufacturing would be influenced by the ability to reduce the cost of production, the ability to precisely replicate products, product customization, and enhanced product performance through additive manufacturing. The lagged transition would be occasioned by limited collaboration among firms on the production of 3D technology products and low demand for AM products. The late transition may be attributed to the absence of a regulatory framework that facilitates the sharing of industry-specific 3DP technology and the failure of additive manufacturing to reduce carbon emissions. To achieve early transition, the government needs to support firms to invest in 3D printing technology, including reducing the cost of production through the purchase of equipment, financial support, and training of employees on AM. Further, the government to support industrial institutions to build a skilled workforce proficient in 3D printing technologies to enhance capabilities to produce products with complex geometries.