Discussion Paper No. 336 of 2024 on Accelerating Solar Energy Transition Towards Green Industrial Revolution in Kenya

Abstract

Solar energy intake in Kenya is still low as compared to other renewable sources, however, its potential is growing as evidenced by increased installed and effective capacity. Kenya plans to attain 100 per cent renewable energy by the year 2030 and achieve net zero emissions by the year 2050. The study explores the current state of solar energy use in Kenya, factors that will accelerate solar energy adoption by the year 2050, and the potential role of Internet of Things (IoT) technologies in optimizing solar energy utilization. A mix of literature review and futures methodology was applied. The scenarios considered political, environmental, social, technological, economic, and legal (PESTEL) factors through consultations with energy sector experts. The findings show that by 2050 solar energy can manifest in four scenarios: delayed transition, successful transition, sustainability, and business-as-usual. The delayed transition scenario represents slow progress in solar adoption due to limited energy storage technologies, slow rural uptake, low environmental accountability, and limited technical progress. The successful transition scenario depicts a rapid increase in solar energy uptake driven by policy incentives and reforms. The sustainability scenario envisions a robust solar energy sector supported by substantial financing through public-private partnerships and a clear, transparent policy framework. The business-as-usual scenario represents maintaining current practices and policies, leading to modest progress without significant advancements. The systematic literature review showed that integrating IoT technologies can potentially enhance efficiency across the solar value chain.