Discussion Paper No. 210 of 2018 on Characterization of Potential Labour Market Entrants by Educational Attainment in Kenya

Abstract

This study sought to investigate who is getting into the labour market in terms of education attainment and their size in the next five years in Kenya. Time series secondary data for the period between 2000 and 2016, from the Ministry of Education, Commission for University Education, and Kenya National Bureau of Statistics and other government documents, were utilized to get the numbers on the potential labour market entrants in Kenya. The study then employs Average Performance Rates to simulate the future. The study finds that the Kenyan market was largely characterized by unskilled labour, as approximately 60 per cent of those who went through the schooling system between 2000 and 2016 had less than or equal primary school as highest level of education attainment. A further 31.9 per cent had only Form IV certificates with approximately 2.6 per cent and 5.1 per cent being university and middle level colleges’ graduates. It is projected that primary and secondary school level graduates will increase by 53.9 per cent and 64.3 per cent, respectively in the period 2018 and 2022 compared to those in 2013 – 2017. Without any additional investment in infrastructure, especially classrooms, it means that the size of secondary school classes will increase from 274 in 2016 to 357 in 2018.