Kenya Economic Report 2021 on Kenya in the Covid-19 Era: Fast-Tracking Recovery and Delivery of the "Big Four" Agenda

Abstract

The Kenya Economic Report (KER) 2021 is the thirteenth in a series of annual reports prepared by the Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis (KIPPRA), pursuant to the KIPPRA Act No. 15 of 2006. The theme for the KER 2021 is “Kenya in COVID-19 Era: Fast-Tracking Recovery and Delivery of the Big Four Agenda”. The overall goal is to provide the basis for turning around the economy, which has been negatively affected by the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic since the beginning of the year 2020, and thus support delivery of the “Big Four” agenda. The “Big Four” agenda, anchored in the third Medium-Term Plan (MTP) of the Kenya Vision 2030, outlines four priority areas to fast-track growth and improve the standards of living of citizens by ensuring food security, expanding the manufacturing sector to create jobs, providing universal health coverage, and providing affordable housing accessible to the low-income earners. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the economy was robust, expanding by an average of over 5.0 per cent. The pandemic has plunged the economy into a recession, with a very sharp contraction experienced for the first time in the last two decades. The pandemic is much more than a health crisis as it has disrupted the social and economic activities as well. As a result, the economy contracted by 0.3 per cent in 2020. In the medium term, the economy faces other downside risks including the invasion by desert locusts, weather-related risks, and political tensions as the country approaches the 2022 general elections. The rebound of the economy is therefore expected to be driven by recovery in key sectors that were significantly affected by COVID-19; exploiting opportunities such as the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) in growing trade; sustaining Government investments in infrastructure; and sustaining prudent economic management