Discussion Paper No. 323 of 2024 on Exploring the Future of Short-Term Rentals in Kenya: A Scenario Planning Approach

Abstract

With the rapid expansion of the sharing economy and the emergency of short-term rentals, there is a pressing need to examine the future trajectory of short-term rentals in Kenya. This study aims to assess the future of short-term rentals commonly understood by Kenyans as Airbnb. The specific objectives were to identify the drivers of change, opportunities, challenges from plausible future scenarios and outline policy implications. The study employed a scenario planning approach methodology. The key findings of the study identified the key drivers of short-term rentals as taxes, e-commerce technologies, accommodation costs, policies and regulations, consumer preference, and age. Out of these, e-commerce technologies and taxes were identified as major driving forces. The two driving forces formed four plausible future scenarios from which opportunities and challenges were identified. The four main opportunities for short-term rentals identified are investment opportunities, government revenue, tapping of the global market, and employment opportunities. The critical challenges in the plausible future of short-term rentals (STRs) were found to be cyber security attacks, insecurity, competition from numerous listings on online platforms, and financial burdens to STRs investors due to high operation costs. The study proposes the following policy recommendations. First, the government could consider investing in digital infrastructure that supports the integration of STR e-commerce systems with the tax framework to streamline tax processes, enhance compliance, and reduce administrative burdens. Second, create a specific tax regulation framework that integrates STRs with the booking platforms to streamline tax reporting and collection, and ensure compliance. Third, facilitate the creation of an enabling environment with a consistent regulatory framework and tax incentives to encourage investment in the STR market. Fourth, address cybersecurity challenges by developing stringent regulations that protect the STR platforms......