Discussion Paper No. 280 of 2022 on Containing the Effects of Climate Change on Maize Yield in Kenya

Abstract

Climate change has implications on agricultural production. This study examined the effects of climate change on maize yield in Kenya using annual time series data for the period 1961-2020. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was used in the estimations. The key findings from the study indicate that precipitation is one of the most important factors influencing maize production in the country. Water deficit with the combination of high temperature, which is a proxy for climate change, has a negative and significant effect on maize production while high precipitation is positively associated with maize yield. The study recommends a number of interventions to mitigate the effects of climate change on maize yield in Kenya. First, enhanced investment in irrigated agriculture both by the National and County governments with support from the private sector and other stakeholders. This would include completion of the various irrigation schemes in the country, such as the Galana Kulalu, to increase maize production in the arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs). Secondly, enhanced investment in water harvesting and storm water management initiatives are needed, while supporting sustainable and climate-smart agriculture in the country. Thirdly, dedicated efforts towards adoption of improved agricultural technology, including maize seeds and management approaches (such as appropriate tillage, and agricultural water management) to cope with climate change. This, coupled with investment in Early Warning Systems, will enhance the resilience of farmers in adapting and mitigating the effects of climate change in the country. Lastly, intensify extension services and investment in maize research through research institutions such as Kenya Agricultural Livestock and Research Organization (KALRO) in fast-maturing and drought resistant maize varieties.